Prediction 14

Duration 10 years (02002-02012)

“In 2012, 75 percept of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees.”

Predictor
marc s. sokol

Challenger
TBA

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sokol’s Argument

The trend toward application outsourcing is gaining momentum. Customers would rather focus on the applications which provide a competitive advantage rather than the common set of applications.

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Bet 14

Posted by Long Bets Admin on Apr 25, 02002 at 04:30AM

In 2012, 75 percept of all revenue for enterprise software companies will be from subscription fees rather than license fees.

Link to bet page

Posted by Catherine M. Bacon on Apr 25, 02002 at 07:34PM

http://www.longbets.org/bet/14

Subscription vs Maintenance

Posted by Thomas L. Holaday on Sep 05, 02002 at 11:48PM

If the Free Software faction were to emerge victorious, enterprise software companies might be working under long-term maintenance agreements. I wonder whether the bettors' language will encompase this possibility.

You mean .. it is not already?

Posted by Richard W on Aug 27, 02003 at 12:33AM

When it comes to Enterprise Software, I would have thought most software was already maintenance-based or based on a click-charge. The exception might be the Microsoft's Office; but it seems ripe for assault either by subscription or by 'free'.

The way I see it, most software has very little patentable or copyrightable value. The value to an enterprise comes in the software's embedded expertise which must be charged for on a subscription basis because it has to constantly renewed and fixed by salary-based developers and analysts.

this is ridiculous

Posted by jack phelps on Jun 11, 02008 at 12:40PM

Server software? Infrastructure software? network/system/application management software? gridding/virtual machine software? database software? Oracle? Legacy system middleware? None of these are likely to make much of a changeover to subscription models. Application software, yes, and some security software (but plenty not), but the term license model is here to stay. For clarification to the person who said maintenance payments: these are not generally considered subscription payments in the software world.

Yes I realize this discussion is like 6 years old.

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