Bet 172
"A machine capable of passing the Turing Test will be made in 2075 using only hardware that was available in 2005."
Prediction 172
Duration 71 years (02004-02075)
Predictor
Kevin Kelly
Challenger
TBA
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The best silicon chip technology of 2005 is probably sufficient for creating an artificial intelligence if it were programmed and wired in the "correct" way. Or to say it in other words, what we in 2005 lack is not denser or faster chips, but better and more intelligent software. The difference between a monkey brain and a human brain is primarily how the gray matter is structured. That difference of organization is still a mystery to us, but once the mystery is solved, hackers and bright high school seniors working on a science fair could retro-wire a working AI using hundreds of old chips unearthed from landfills of our time, assuming a Turing Test AI had already been achieved by then (which I do). The strong version of this prediction says that the hackers will also manage to only use cooling or communication hardware from 2005, although it may be redesigned as needed.
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"A machine capable of passing the Turing Test will be made in 2075 using only hardware that was available in 2005."
in 2075 a machine will be able to pass the turning test, was a OK prediction but , i dont think it will be from 2005 hardwares! The machine who will be able to pass the turning test will not be able to work in a 500 mb, or 1 gb ram!
So by that argument I could also run Windows Vista on a punch-card super computer from the 1950's?
I agree that in the year 2075 better models for handling natural language will exist. This will allow software to run more efficiently on 2005 processors and memory. However, I predict that (external) disk requirements will be huge as all worldly wisdom and encyclopedic knowledge including professional terminology has to be accessible to handle random questions. But I don't see why 2005 hardware would not be able to handle several terabytes of diskspace. There will be some gaps i.e. questions that the machine cannot handle, but so would any human being competing with a machine in a Turing test scenario.
Correct me if I am wrong. But haven't chatbots built prior to 2005 already been able to make a human judge believe they are speaking with a human? Of course, this challenge was accomplished by way of simply mimicking speech patterns, and not raw thinking "intelligence." But then again, conversation may simply be a function of simply mimicking speech patterns.
I think Kevin's assertion is true that it could be done, but I don't think any person will successfully boot a seventy year old machine and get Kevin's AI to cross-compile, and the AI won't be nostalgic until 2145.
Even supposing the premise of the claim is true (i.e., that AI could run on 2005 vintage hardware), the wording suggests that you would have to demonstrate this on real 2005 hardware, or at least a replica thereof, to win the bet. I doubt it will be practical to obtain that hardware in 2075, let alone get it operable. Moreover, even if you could, why would you? It would be a great deal of work yielding limited benefit for either the AI or the researcher(s) that created it.
This would have been a more plausible (although still not all that plausible, IMO) claim if it had been phrased in terms of the computing requirements; e.g., AI passing the Turing Test can run with less than 1 peta-operations per second.
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