Bet 194
"The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100."
Prediction 194
Duration 96 years (02005-02100)
Predictor
Mark A. Bahner
Challenger
TBA
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In the Winter 2000 issue of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, Nobel laureate Robert E. Lucas Jr. predicts that the world per-capita economic growth rate will fall over the 21st century, from approximately 3.1 percent per year in 2000 to approximately 2.3 percent per year in 2100. Starting from a world per-capita GDP of $7,200 in the year 2000, this produces a per-capita GDP in the year 2100 of approximately $94,000 (in year 2000 dollars). This value is far too low (by more than a factor of 100). Further, Dr. Lucas' prediction that the world per-capita GDP growth rate will fall throughout the 21st century is also wrong.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in their Third Assessment Report (TAR), predicts a maximum world per-capita GDP in the year 2100 of approximately $140,000 (in year 2000 dollars). The IPCC reports a survey of "economic literature" as providing a maximum value of approximately $110,000 (in year 2000 dollars). Both of these values are also far too low (by more than a factor of 70).
The world per-capita GDP growth rate will increase throughout the 21st century, from approximately 3% per year at the start of the century to more than 10% per year at the end of the century. This acceleration of economic growth will occur because of improvements in technology, particularly computer technology.
This bet is open to Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Herman Daly, any member of the IPCC, or any member of the economics who has published a prediction of economic growth over the 21st century.
Sign in to challenge Mark A. Bahner to a bet on this prediction!
"The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100."
Bahner has restricted this debate open to Robert E. Lucas, Jr., Herman Daly, any member of the IPCC, or any member of the economics who has published a prediction of economic growth over the 21st century. Otherwise, I am prepared to challenge him with strong academic arguments. Of course, whether I will be able to spare US$200 out of my own pocket or be able to get a sponsor (perhaps a member of the IPCC, or a member of the economics research centres), is a different question.
Unfortunately, however, present voting patterns are adverse to Bahner in the ratio of 30% (Agree) to & 70% (Disagree). I am suspecting, if there will be an academically founded argument on the other side of the balance sheet, the voting ratio will become more adverse.
I have noticed correlation between numbers of readers attracted to a debate and to the extent voting patterns are balanced. In other words, we may miss potential readers if the ratio-scale moves further to the left.
If I would be in Bahner place, I would have made my arguments more attractive at least initially e.g. to win more number of voters. But then perhaps it is not permitted to change the language subsequently (am I right?). This restriction evidently makes the task difficult for any academics.
Well, here is a question – I wonder what Bahner would like me to do next? I mean, post my Challenge or E-mail first?
Hi Pavan,
I'm sorry it's taken so long for me to reply. I don't come to this site very often.
I'm also sorry, but I want to restrict my bet to people like Robert E. Lucas Jr....economists who have made their own predictions for the 21st century in some sort of published literature.
The main reason I want that restriction is that my prediction truly is a "50% probability" prediction. I don't mind losing the bet. But, for example, if the world per capita GDP in 2060 is $120,000, rather than the $130,000 that I'm predicting, I would personally consider that a "win," compared with some who, for example, predicted a world per capita GDP of $40,000 in 2060.
So I'd be happy to bet if you can find an economist (like Robert E. Lucas Jr.) who has made a published prediction of world per capita GDP growth in the 21st century. But I want to keep that restriction on the bet.
Best wishes,
Mark
The GDPs I list are Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), not currency (Market Exchange Rates, or MER).
For example, Wikipedia lists the following world per capita GDPs in PPP:
2002: $7,900
2003: $8,200
2005: $9,300
2006: $10,000
Hi Mark,
I appreciate your enthusiasm to rope-in well published researchers, even though they are not responding to your challenge.
In the meanwhile, have you looked at the historical per capita consumption of poor people over the last several millenniums. When I investigated that, I was surprised to see not much has changed from the time of Pyramids to present days.
The point is – rules of historic economics are not same as those of short-term economics.
Best wishes to you too.
Pavan
The per capita GDP can't rise that high for the obvious reason that people wouldn't want to consume that much stuff. If productivity really rose that much, people would expand leisure time.
The per capita GDP can't rise that much in any case because of scarcity of key resources: water, topsoil, reasonably clean energy. If production and consumption were to rise that fast, the consequences would be severe for the environment, causing so much damage that world GDP would fall.
And I'll fix the world in a year.
I sure hope you're right, the plight of so many of the world's people is such a tragedy.
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