Bet 204
"In 2009, WinFX will be the dominant API for application development on all major PC platforms."
Prediction 204
Duration 2 years (02005-02007)
Predictor
Carl K. Lumma
Challenger
TBA
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Win32 is still the way to ship applications (ask Google), but it's so antique nobody would consider doing anything innovative with it. The world is crying out for a new API.
Java applets failed miserably. The disasterous state of the JVM means Java today is less portable than C was 20 years ago. The widgets are a joke and applets are still as slow as molasses.
Quartz on Mac OS X had most of the right elements, but never came together as a platform for delivering, say, apps over the web. In fact, Mac developers are still trying to figure out what to do with it. Cocoa was stillborn.
The Gnome/KDE/QT crowd has some interesting stuff, but it's really looking too much like balsa wood at this point. And of course, glue.
At least one important app has been shipped with XUL, but it doesn't seem to be gaining capabilities quickly enough.
Flash actually seems like the biggest threat to WinFX, but its curators are resolutely unwilling to make it into anything more than a toy for making obnoxious web sites quickly and easily.
All the apps people might actually want to use are today being deployed with browsers and AJAX. After 10 years, browsers can finally render things consistently enough to be called a platform. And the festering promise is working itself out. But this platform is still too limited to deliver the next generation of applications.
SVG has been sitting around since 1998. It's the perfection of displaying stuff on the web, with the same interaction problems. X3D seems more capable, and just as doomed to obscurity as VRML.
WinFX is vector-based (scales with display dpi), cleartype-packing, natively 3-D (via DirectX, the dominant 3-D API) widgets laid out with (human-readable) markup, a paradigm-exploding WYSIWYG design tool (Sparkle) that exists TODAY, driveable with of any of the .Net CLR languages.
As usual, it will be available for the previous version of Windows (XP), but Microsoft is hinting that it will also be ported to other platforms. It's the only fully capable next generation API shipping today, running at real speeds, with a realistic platform included in the package. Microsoft knows that a client-side API lock will not happen again.
http://lumma.org/microwave/#2005.09.20.5
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"In 2009, WinFX will be the dominant API for application development on all major PC platforms."
Irrespective of the virtue of the various APIs available, the market does not move that quickly. 2009 is too soon.
I currently use C#, WCF etc daily, so I know what you talking about, Silverlight. The .Net framework is superb to program, a sheer joy.
I agree with M.D. Downing, the market doesn't move that fast, but if you do examine the market, you can see that Gartner reported in 2008, has reported that Java has 23+ percent of the programming market, .Net has I think under 10%, so all this stuff about disasterous state of the JVM, Java been less portable doesn't seem to strike a cord. Simply fact is that .Net apps use a JVM as well, developed using the same techniques and technology that is used in the Java JVM. They even use the same optimisation techniques, as it generally executes on the X86.
The market for Silverlight apps is tiny, and I suspect that it is will become a failed technology, used mostly by MS and MS main enterprise customers, companies like Dell and Boeing. As regards its main competitor, there is already a huge impetus behind Flash and Actionscript which can also deliver next generation UI's on par or better than Silverlight with Java providing back office services. I can't see it being a flash killer, simply because windows is collapsing and flash is well supported in open source operating systems. With the HSPDA market opening up, especially here in the UK with the 7.2mb rollout, and the impending release in the near timeframe of the open source mobile OS, Google Android, and 14.2mb HSPDA being rolled out next year, the mobile market is ripe for well designed flash apps, firstly because its well understood with plenty of engineers available to write apps, and secondly its open source friendly and will run well on Android. No doubt about it, it will come of age.
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