Prediction 217

Duration 5 years (02005-02010)

“Within the next 5 years, Google employees will become dissatisfied, and kick-start a new wave of new technology and prosperity in Silicon Valley.”

Predictor
Juli Mallett

Challenger
TBA

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Mallett’s Argument

We are in the tenth year of what is more or less the same group of people who brought about the first Internet boom. This generation of people is becoming somewhat set in their ways and is bringing less "new" to the table.

The current reigning leader of "new" is Google, who likes to think they have a monopoly on bright people. That's far from the truth, but they do set large numbers of smart people to work within their ranks. They seem to believe that this will add to some mythical "Quality" of their overall offering.

I propose that at some point soon, Google is going to undergo a change. Some of the benefits will go away, the stock will undergo a relatively major drop, or they will start demanding more focus from their Engineers.

As a result of this threat (or at least change) to their normal state of being, and as a result of Google bringing so many people together who are smart and capable, and getting them to work together, at least in part, there will be numerous pockets, in roughly the same span of time, who will go off to work on an idea together that either doesn't fit into the Google Way, or which they don't want to be integrated into Google.

This will bring about a new infusion of ideas and technology which will in turn encourage more people to try it themselves, ushering in another age like that of the mid-to-late 90s. Within 5 years, I think we will see at least a dozen such off-shoots of dissatisfied Google people, bringing about a very notable change in the Silicon Valley economy and technological landscape.

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Bet 217

Posted by Simone P. Davalos on Nov 17, 02005 at 05:42PM

Juli Mallett predicts: "Within the next 5 years, Google employees will become dissatisfied, and kick-start a new wave of new technology and prosperity in Silicon Valley."

Not before 2015

Posted by Matthias Brust-Braun on Nov 23, 02007 at 10:34AM

Although this might happen eventually, I don't think this is happening right now or likely to happen during the next few years. Google is incredibly dynamic and innovative, so my impression is their employees are too excited about all the progress and being part of that. I'm curious about Google's work related to the human genome. That could eventually have a huge impact and trigger yet another wave of technological innovation.

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