Prediction 226
Duration 19 years (02006-02024)
Predictor
morrison m. bonpasse
Challenger
TBA
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The people of the world want their money to be stable and convenient internationally. The creation of the euro and the European Monetary Union have shown how such stability and international convenience, including zero foreign exchange transaction costs, can be achieved. For countries joining a single global currency, there will be no balance or payments problems, nor currency crises. The major problem with the euro is that it is only one of the 147 currencies of the U.N.'s 191 members, and is thus still subject to the same exchange rate fluctuations as the other 146. A single global currency, with more member countries will be more stable and less subject to the whims of the diminishing foreign exchange marketplace. The 3-G's may be achieved by the continued growth of the European Monetary Union, perhaps together with a merger with one or more other regional monetary unions; or an entirely new global monetary union may be created at an international conference. After the 51% milestone is achieved, only a few more years would be required to reach 95%.
Two predictions in LongBets, 77 and 122, relate to this prediction, but those predictions are overly cautious.
This prediction is the goal of the Single Global Currency Association, with website www.singleglobalcurrency.org
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morrison m. bonpasse predicts: "By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP."
Even today if you add World's GDPs of European Union, USA, UK, Canada, and Japan, the sum is much more than 51%.
These countries are able to move over to single currency far more easily than remaining countries; especially because they now know the success story of Euro behind and understand the mechanism i.e. how a common central bank can deal issues across the borders. But what's about emerging economies such as India, China, Brazil etc.
It is very unlikely that there could be a common currency bridging the gap between so called "Rich" and "Poor" populations of the world. This is because Socio-political mechanism works in a different way than Socio-economical system. For example, in India there could be a large amount of black-money i.e. flowing through an unaccounted market. How will a common central bank be able to work-out a fair taxation and tax-redistribution matrix. Well, a simpler solution could be to ignore such countries, which is what seems to be the intention of limiting the Wold's GDP to a low level of 51% only.
If someone can give more light to these naughty questions, I will really appreciate and like to know!
For Pavan Gupta, I chose 51% of the world's GDP for my prediction because once there is a currency which supports that much of the world's economy, the other nations of the world will seek to join. The 51% will be a classic example of a "tipping point."
Every currency is able to support rich and poor sections and prosperous and backward economies, just as all such varieties of an economy can use the same metric system for their measurements. India can use the same currency as Belgium, the richest per capita country in the world. Even in Belgium, however, there are poor people and sick people.
Regarding taxation, the Global Central Bank would have no role in local and national taxation of any country, just as central banks have no such role now.
The Single Global Currency will save the world trillions, but it will not substantially diminish the gross inequalities of wealth and income in the world. We can only hope, however, that by using a Single Global Currency, such inequalities would become more visible and therefore less tolerable than they are today.
This week, Cyprus and Malta joined the eurozone, which further reduced the number of currencies in the world to 141, among the U.N. members. Only 140 to go, and fewer than that to reach the 51%.
By 2024 will we be talking about physical money as we know it or will it be a case of virtual currency?
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