Prediction 347
Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.
Prediction 347
Duration 15 years (02008-02023)
Predictor
Jason W. Galbraith
Challenger
TBA
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Since the passage of Roe v. Wade, there have been eight Presidential elections of which the GOP has won five, or 62.5%. Supreme Court appointments have been even more lopsided, with the GOP appointing eight of the ten persons to go on the Court since Roe v. Wade was decided. Several are likely to retire during the next President's first term, but the GOP's edge in Presidential elections probably means that it will select more Justices over the next fifteen years even if it loses the 2008 election.
With the rise of members of the Federalist Society to prominence in the legal profession, the nomination by a Republican President of a "stealth liberal" in the mold of David Souter, or even an open moderate like Sandra O'Connor, is increasingly unlikely (witness the failure of the Harriet Myers nomination in 2005). The evangelical base of the Republican Party (as distinguished from country-club conservatives and conservative-leaning independents) has gotten more, not less, serious about abolishing legal abortion in the last decade and a half. It is entirely willing to become a permanent minority if it can achieve success (even temporarily) on its signature social issue.
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Would any limitations other than a full and explicit repeal satisfy this prediction? If so, what are they?
Would any limitations other than a full and explicit repeal satisfy this prediction? If so, what are they?
There are two ways in which my prediction could be satisfied and only two: a Constitutional amendment or a Supreme Court decision overruling Roe v. Wade. The latter is the more likely, given that a simple majority could be found to support legal abortion in far more than 1/4 of the states.
Though clinging to God and backward ideals is a tempting thing to do in times of uncertainty, I do not believe that this law will be overturned. If anything the opposite will happen. As you've stated the republican has had the majority in both the Supreme Court and in the executive. Yet nothing has happened yet.
Truth be told, the woman's rights minority group would be just as willing to combat the evangelical base on this issue and I do not see the shrinking religious minority gaining the support to over turn this law.
God, I hope you're wrong. I maintain that it won't since this country seems to be getting more socially progressive and not less.
I think we're in for a good, long thaw in America, with the far right being driven back in favor of social progress in terms of both liberty and egalitarianism.
Can you tell I'm an Obama supporter? I sure hope he doesn't make us do jihads and stuff...
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