Prediction 403
Duration 50 years (02008-02058)
Predictor
Jonathan M. Rothberg
Challenger
TBA
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Computers will become intelligent when they have as many connections as the human brain.
This bet is the result of a “discussion” between myself and Daphne Koller, as adjudicated by Danny Hillis.
My argument is based on the simple calculation that we have no more then 10^13 neurons in the human brain with less then 50,000 connections each for a maximum number of 5 x 10^17 connections.
Computer chips have 3 x 10^9 connections (circa 2008), doubling every 2 years requires 27 doublings or 54 years to reach ~ 5 x 10^17 connections.
In terms of "training this network" it may simply be plugged into the Internet to learn - after some smart person works out the architectural and mechanistic details.
Notes: Estimates for the number of neuron in the brain range from 10 to over 100 billion. Estimates of connections are usually on the order of 2 to 10 thousand each.
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Your prediction is about intelligence, but you argument is about number of connections. I am sure there is a relationship, but I doubt intelligence is the same as connections. Without a way of defining and testing for intelligent this bet does not make much sense. An interesting bet, but silly.
... it's about the numbers of connections per processing element. Neurons have to be able to broadcast to lots of others simultaneously: as is pointed out in the note at the bottom of the argument, they have on the order of thousands of connections each. To achieve this requires massive improvement in both off-chip and on-chip connection technology. One problem is that conventional approaches dictate that the more processors you fit on a chip, the fewer off-chip connections per processor you have. This is because the number of processors scales with area, the number of connections with the length of the perimeter.
People are working on solving problems like this, both optically and electronically, and I'm not arguing against the bet, necessarily, but the reasoning is faulty.
You might be interested in (for instance):
Abu-Mustafa, Yaser S. (1988), Lower bound for connectivity in local-learning neural networks, Journal of Complexity 4, pp. 246?255.
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