A challenge to the fusion community
I will wager at least $1000 on my prediction. I would very much like to hear from anyone from the fusion community, from the DOE, or from any other fusion advocates who disagree.
Prediction 426
Duration 42 years (02008-02050)
Predictor
Charles G. Seife
Challenger
TBA
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"I venture to predict that a method will be found for liberating fusion energy in a controlled manner within the next two decades.” --Homi J. Bhabha, 9 August 1955.
Governments have spent billions of dollars and generations of scientists and engineers have spent their careers on the fusion quest. However, more than half a century after Bhabha’s prophecy, we are still not within twenty (or thirty or forty) years of using fusion to help satisfy our society’s ever-increasing thirst for energy.
Despite decades of unjustified optimism and broken promises, fusion advocates still dream of a fusion-powered future right around the corner. They argue that the enormous International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor, currently being built in the south of France, will pave the way to a demonstration commercial fusion reactor by the year 2040.
If history is any guide, this promise, too, will be broken. Indeed, A real working fusion power plant -- one that transmits more power to the grid than it consumes -- is more than forty years away, even half a century after Bhabha’s initial prediction. We and our children (and probably our children’s children) will not be able to look to fusion as a solution to our society's energy problems.
Sign in to challenge Charles G. Seife to a bet on this prediction!
I will wager at least $1000 on my prediction. I would very much like to hear from anyone from the fusion community, from the DOE, or from any other fusion advocates who disagree.
We're making more and more progress on all fronts every day, and 50 years is a long way out. It could happen, or it could just be impossible, but I think the eggheads will get the details sorted out, even in the next 20 years.
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