Prediction 437
Duration 5 years (02008-02013)
Predictor
Tim Wiebe
Challenger
TBA
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Iraq has at least 115 billion barrels of crude oil reserves. Most of Iraq has not been geologically explored, with modern seismic techniques, due to restrictions by the Iraqi government for 40 years. The 115 figure comes from old surveys, and is likely much higher.
Recently, senior Iraqi officials have publically stated that the petroleum reserves of Iraq are the largest in the world, larger than Saudi Arabia.
Worldwide petroleum production has peaked globally, around the year 2007, according to proponents of Hubbert's curve.
Crude oil in Iraq is "sweet light crude", meaning it is very high quality, and is extremely cheap to produce, at around $2 a barrel in production costs, which are the cheapest in the world, even factoring the high cost of security.
Iraq may have up to 25% of the remaining cheap crude oil in the world, that is easily accessable, with known and proven technology.
Iraq is likely to emerge, within 15 years, as one of the wealthiest nations in the world. If Iraq does indeed, have 300 billion barrels of oil, and oil stays at least at $100 a barrel, due to Peak Oil, then the value of that asset would be $1 million U.S. dollars, per Iraqi, approximately, if you multiply 300 billion barrels, times 100 dollars, and divide by the population of Iraq, which is around 30 million, according to some estimates.
Iraq would be a country where every man, woman, or child, would be a millionaire.
The pace of progress of Iraqi oil production is likely to be disappointing.
If the market comes to believe that Iraq has an additional 25% of the world's oil production and can extract it at $2/barrel, then the price of oil will likely not be $100, but much lower. Lastly, the effect of economic growth of currency is complicated and the large swing in value that is predicted, absent an artificial peg, is unlikely.
After the first Gulf War, the value of the Kuwaiti Dinar plunged, as well. When that country was successfully liberated, and the oil was up and running again, their currency regained it's original value. I remember reading that an investor had spent $10 thousand dollars, on Kuwaiti currency, and a few years later, it was worth $3 million.
This is a matter of public record, and can be easily found by googling the history of the Kuwaiti currency.
The world is running out of oil. Yesterday, the International Energy Agency issued a stern wake-up call, saying it will be even tougher to produce all the energy the world needs, in the future, and that world dependency on middle eastern oil will keep growing.
The Paris based organization said enough investment is not currently being made to develop oil reserves for the future, and that the price of oil is too soar, beyond the recent record price of oil. This will push up the value of oil-based currencies.
And the economies of India and China will continue to grow. There will be plenty of demand for oil, which should push up currency prices for the Dinar.
Presently, all oil-rich middle eastern currencies are much much higher than the Iraqi Dinar.
And just before the recent invasion of Iraq, the Iraqi Dinar was trading 3 Dinars, to 1 U.S. dollars, and oil production will exceed pre-invasion levels, within a couple of years, when the Dinar will be re-valued.
I think the Iraqi Dinar is a pretty safe bet, to increase to it's pre-war levels.
Thanks
that this prediction coming true is far more achievable as a result of the US economy and dollar imploding, than the meteoric rise of the dinar? I'm not saying of course there's no room for the value of the dinar to go up, but rather that there is almost unlimited room for the value of the dollar to go down.
I just read Hot Flat and Crowded by Tom Freidman, writer for the New York Times. He's left of center on most issues. In his book, he tells how misguided American energy policy, has made rich, what he describes as "petro-dictators". He says this trend works against American interests, and even with more sensible energy policy by Obama's team, is likely to continue.
I agree with him.
One of the effects of this will be the strengthening of oil-rich currencies, especially the Iraqi Dinar, which is obscenely under-valued.
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