What type of scientific breakthrough is revealed to the world through... an advertisement? This prediction seems to be just an attempt to draw attention to a poorly made and vague website.
Prediction 440
Duration 4 years (02008-02012)
Predictor
Lux Veritas
Challenger
TBA
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All existing DNA sequencing methods are intrinsically at least one million times slower and at least one thousand times more expensive per complete human genome than the direct physical method of DNA sequencing that was hinted in The Economist advertisement (October 25th - 31st 2008; US print edition, p.82).
Identification of individual molecules from arbitrary complexity in up to Terahertz speed, as claimed in The Economist translates into sequencing a single human genome in a fraction of a second (quicker than the blink of an eye).
Non-physical DNA sequencing techniques, regardless of the level of multiplexing cannot accomplish such a rate economically. This fundamental physical limit is currently not understood as an intrinsic limitation by the proponents of DNA sequencing-by-synthesis and other non-direct and non-physical DNA sequencing paradigms. The unfair advantage of the DNA sequencing method advertised in The Economist by means of advanced nano-photonics is the Terahertz speed of identifying molecules from arbitrary complexity.
Using such a purely physical method enables sequencing an arbitrary number of people, who will obtain their genome sequence as effortlessly as making an online bank transaction.
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What type of scientific breakthrough is revealed to the world through... an advertisement? This prediction seems to be just an attempt to draw attention to a poorly made and vague website.
The scientific breakthrough that was hinted, but not revealed in The Economist was clearly not made serendipitously, or as a stochastic outcome of mental activity that needs to be “shared” with the scientific community for validation.
The readers of The Economist know that there is no free lunch, and they are more likely to receive utilizable scientific breakthrough information in advance of the scientific community.
The inventors who understand the convention on the second law of thermodynamics will likely choose to communicate with the people of pecuniary means first. However, communication in the public domain such as in The Economist would initially be done anonymously to protect the inventors from others who do not acknowledge the second law, and instead insist on “sharing”.
The purpose of the announcement in The Economist about the Terahertz-based reading of molecular identity from arbitrary complexity is as clear as a typical Silicon Valley day - to attach a metering device to the invention and monetize it, by 2012.
There is sufficient information to support the wager with confidence.
I understand your viewpoint, however this website is quite obviously dedicated to "accountable predictions", not "anonymous marketing plugs and pleas for investors to take notice of my technological endeavors". Only the facts are necessary to make your prediction here. Name. Occurrence/Discovery/Outcome. Time frame.
There appears to be more to this wager than it seems, but the minimal requirements for legitimacy have been met. The claims and the challenge are crystal clear and paid for in accordance with the rules of The Long Now Foundation, otherwise there would be no bet.
It appears that someone has already taken notice of their claims, hence the confidence expressed in the prediction. My guess is that their strategy to be noticed has worked, and the wager is some form of vindication.
I would like to know where to submit my genome for sequencing before 2012, how much is the fee, and when will they make the solar cell available. So far, their website is mute on this point.
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Non-physical DNA sequencing techniques, regardless of the level of multiplexing cannot accomplish such a rate economically.
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