Prediction 448
Duration 92 years (02008-02100)
Predictor
Michael H. Martin-Smith
Challenger
TBA
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O'Neill's ideas for Island space colonies launched considerable public interest, which has inspired many of the active players in today's private space industry. The X Prize has resulted in the first steps towards privately affordable space flight, while inflatable prototype habitats are already in orbit. Closed loop recycling of water and oxygen is already active on board the ISS. IN the 2020s a Moon Race should have led to bases on the Moon, with later ones on NEOs, leading to solar power satellite construction, and a growing space hotel industry. Such hotels will grow in evolutionary steps towards full-blown free floating city states, as proposed by O'Neill et al. Overcrowding, persecution/totalitarianism, and the classic search for new opportunities and new horizons will produce the people and the motives for such expansion. The end result will be a Cosmic Diaspora over the next 1,000 years, with a humanised Galaxy by 1,000,000 AD. The alternative is extinction.
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Try to take a trip to the North Pole (on Earth), in the winter, with the same equipment and supplies that you anticipate to be able to take to space. Survival there for the same duration of time as would be necessary in space to avoid extinction is a pure fantasy.
What alternatives are in space that are absent on Earth that would prevent extinction? Space? The argument is inconsistent.
All Utopian ideas had been tried ... and failed. Wake up, and accept it.
As in they grown their own Martian crops?
I'm not sure what to think of this. 2100 is long way from 2008.
Plenty of time in order to make this feasible.
Self-sufficient survival in Antarctica, to take an example, would be relatively simple with current technology if money and energy supply were not issues. With current trends, we can expect technological capacity, at least, to become much less expensive as time goes by.
What's needed, then, is cheaper, easier energy. If a future energy supply that is inexpensive, reliable, and transportable (or easily reproducible) is developed, then survival in many inhospitable places would become much simpler. Antarctica or Mars, certainly.
Of course, getting yourself and your equipment to Mars is another story. Still, for a 'small population', it's certainly plausible.
I see a zero chance that another human sets his or her foot on the moon until 2020. Even a limited base will not come before 2030.
Mars will not be visited before 2050 (see my prediction).
So we'll see that even the time between the first visits on Moon and the second ones will be >50 years. So 100 years is too limited a time for such a development.
Private space travel will come, but currently funding is hard and the companies learn that just want of doing things easier does not do away with the problems.
Plus: There's nothing really to gain from colonies, yet. There simply IS no other inhabitable planet for humans in this solar system. So the "Exploration of foreign continents" paradigm doesn't apply: only those (continents) which were inhabitable became inhabited, no self-sustaining colonies in Antarctica, yet, 100 years after the exploration started.
Based on current rates of technological development, along with gradually falling costs of launch vehicles, advances in materials technology, the increasing commercialisation of space, improving techniques in food/energy/resource management, and the timescale involved, I think it's fair to say there'll be at least one permanent colony on either Mars or the Moon by 2100.
In fact, 2100 is probably a conservative estimate. People seem to forget the exponential trends which are driving technological progress, and instead think in terms of linear progress (look up "Law of Accelerating Returns" on Wikipedia). This exponential growth in science and technology will substantially drive down costs.
Plus, we'll likely have fusion power by the 2050s - giving us a major incentive to begin mining the Moon for Helium-3 (this isotope is rare on Earth). Furthermore, we'll see major breakthroughs in propulsion technology between now and 2100, making these colonies far easier to access and develop.
Nine decades is a long time, and a heck of a lot can happen between now and then. If you look back the same length of time, to 1920, we had barely discovered flight back then. We had nothing like computers, or satellites, or mobile phones, etc. Now look forwards to 2100, with a massively accelerated rate of progress - including the assistance of hyperfast AI, which will further boost our knowledge of nanotech materials, engineering, physical processes, cost efficiency and so on. In my view it's obvious there will be major advances in space exploration.
You may see exponential growth in technology overall, but right now there is little or even negative growth in (manned) spaceflight.
40 Years ago man flew to the moon, for the US that was using the 3rd generation of manned spacecraft being developed within a decade. Development in the USSR was similar.
Now, moon landings this are not going to be repeated for at least another 10-15 years. Since 40 years ago only one new spacecraft was being developed, and that was brought into service more than 25 years ago.
Launch rates for unmanned spaceflight have declined rapidly since the end of the cold war actually bringing launch costs UP, not down significantly and there is little perspective for that to fundamentally change.
Today's technological advances are mainly in information and communication technology and maybe regenerative energy.
On other aspects: Helium-3 mining on Moon is a Myth. It's existence on moon in significant levels is a pure theoretical construct, mining and transporting it would be so difficult that the eventual energy you could produce from it would be less than what you need to bring it down to earth. Plus Helium-3 is not strictly required for fusion.
Apart from all this: This Prediction is about a SELF SUFFICIENT outpost, that is, one that does NOT depend on supply from earth.
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