Prediction 488

Duration 2 years (02009-02011)

“California state government will dissolve in default.”

Predictor
Aaron H

Challenger
TBA

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H’s Argument

Due to negative factors that compound the deficit crisis, California state government will collapse after default that leads to anarchy unprecedented in the history of the Union.

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Never Gonna Happen

Posted by Logan M. Albright on Jul 02, 02009 at 12:06PM PDT

Because the Federal government won't allow it to happen. If they're willing to bail out car companies, don't you think they will bail out California?

Anarchy?

Posted by John J. Colosi on Jul 14, 02009 at 01:27PM PDT

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof. You’ve said yourself that anarchy is unprecedented. What about this particular budget crisis would cause such a collapse? I find no reason to believe this is true. Occam’s razor suggests I should then believe it is false. Just like on 1/1/2000, stability is the rule, for better or worse.

Incidentally, I really need a replica watch. I only wish someone could point me in the right direction!

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