Vote Details for Bet 180

Duration 97 years (02005-02101)

“Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100.

Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR).

Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100.

I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius.

In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.

Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101).



My bet is only open to members of the IPCC."”

side with predictor
side with challenger
 

21 people (49%)

22 people (51%)

43 TOTAL

Sided With Predictor

mabuse September 24, 02008
fasteddy August 26, 02008
jackscherer July 8, 02008
bikermailman March 23, 02008
jmviii3 January 26, 02008
nikunj September 21, 02007
philipthacker September 5, 02007
fizzysist July 18, 02007
thetoaster May 16, 02007
andropopolips November 11, 02006
thedonk October 25, 02006
glenra September 24, 02006
kmoyd September 24, 02006
freebird August 2, 02006
polestar July 23, 02006
h58867 April 24, 02006
neoshroom April 13, 02006
yossarian December 28, 02005
rleyland July 26, 02005
sirius May 30, 02005
deanhayes March 29, 02005

Sided With Challenger

loftylegend July 30, 02008
peterga June 11, 02008
okrick June 9, 02008
stevemidgley May 2, 02008
w3steve April 30, 02008
fermi April 8, 02008
jmcgarve March 13, 02008
anshulsawant January 18, 02008
chriccha January 16, 02008
jodyw1 February 2, 02007
supermi December 24, 02006
btutty November 29, 02006
wesley November 23, 02006
garyhaislip August 5, 02006
jwil July 18, 02006
madir May 24, 02006
brownstone71 May 17, 02006
cesium62 April 10, 02006
gdnystrom April 8, 02006
redflux December 16, 02005
dottow November 8, 02005
brianschmidt February 18, 02005