Prediction 241

Duration 24 years (02006-02029)

“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.”

Predictor
Mike Treder

Challenger
TBA

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Treder’s Argument

It is a natural extension of the long historical trend toward increased breadth of governmental authority and responsibility: from band to tribe to village to town to city to state to federation, the direction is clear and inexorable. This next logical step will result from the pressure of commercial globalization (and its social and environmental impacts) combined with the enhanced ability to learn, communicate, and coordinate over greater distances.

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Bet 241

Posted by Simone P. Davalos on May 23, 02006 at 05:55PM

Mike Treder predicts: "The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs."

Never

Posted by Jack Scherer on Jan 31, 02007 at 09:58AM


You fail to see politicians desire to maintain their status egos and incomes.

You also fail to see the growth of the 'political industry'.

Read George Orwell and look at the growth of regional government.




Agreed, but not so soon.

Posted by Nick F. Huege on Mar 18, 02007 at 10:19PM

The creation of global government is inevitable. I agree with you. I just don't think it will happen so soon. Think the year 2100+.

Not even Close

Posted by Steve G on Jun 10, 02008 at 12:52PM

Not even close. Your "natural extension" argument is deeply flawed. You completly ignore the inate nature of soverignty, which is "identity." All individuals, groups, tribes, towns and ultimatly govenments, are a function of individuals pursuing, mainting and protecting their identy. To imply a world order, a global government would require a massive consolidation and elimiation of all of the worlds identities. It is why we have wars, strife and conflict. Sovereighnty is an extension of mans greatest asset - free will. Anytime you challege free-will, bullets fly. Not even a discussion. Will never happen

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