Prediction 354

Duration 3 years (02008-02011)

“In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.”

Predictor
Martin G. Tobias

Challenger
TBA

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Tobias’s Argument

Diesel is proven technology. With the introduction of ULSD in 2007 now the US can fuel the advanced clean diesels that are already made in Europe. Diesels get 30% better mileage than the same internal combustion engine and last longer. The uplift for diesel is less than the uplift for hybrid drive train. No battery replacement issues. Diesels will kick hybrids ass.

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Correct prediction wrong time scale

Posted by Jack Scherer on Jul 08, 02008 at 07:19PM

You are very right!!!

Posted by Grant F. Peltier on Aug 06, 02008 at 10:32PM

The truth is that hybrids will most likely be running dirtier than diesel engines in a few years because they require fossil fuels to run but diesel engines are able to run off of bio-diesel which burns extremely clean.

Hybrids sold these days

Posted by Chris D. Waggoner on Sep 10, 02008 at 10:01AM

HYBRID SALES & MARKET SHARE
2000: 9,350 � 0.1%
2001: 19,177 � 0.1%
2002: 37,993 � 0.2%
2003: 47,524 � 0.3%
2004: 85,525 � 0.5%
2005: 206,858 � 1.2%
2006: 254,143 � 1.5%
2007: 351,000 � 2.2%
2008: 382,000 � 2.4%
2009: 614,000 � 3.8%
2010: 772,000 � 4.7%
2011: 938,000 � 5.6%
2012: 1,007,000 � 6%

2007 figures are preliminary; 2008 and beyond are projections.
Source: J.D. Power and Associates

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