| No. |
Bet |
Duration |
Stakes |
Predictor |
Challenger |
| 1. |
By 2029 no computer - or "machine intelligence" - will have passed the Turing Test. |
27 years
02002 - 02029 |
$20,000
$10,000 |
Mitchell Kapor |
Ray Kurzweil |
| 2. |
In a Google search of five keywords or phrases representing the top five news stories of 2007, weblogs will rank higher than the New York Times' Web site. |
5 years
02002 - 02007 |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Dave Winer |
Martin Nisenholtz |
| 3. |
A profitable video-on-demand service aimed at consumers will offer 10,000 titles to 5 million subscribers by 2010. |
8 years
02002 - 02010 |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Jim Griffin |
Gordon Bell |
| 4. |
By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes. |
28 years
02002 - 02030 |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Craig Mundie |
Eric Schmidt |
| 5. |
By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as "the world leader in software development" or words to that effect. |
10 years
02002 - 02012 |
$10,000
$5,000 |
Esther Dyson |
Bill Campbell |
| 6. |
By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks. |
8 years
02002 - 02010 |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Jason Epstein |
Vint Cerf |
| 7. |
The universe will eventually stop expanding. |
? years
02002 - ? |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Danny Hillis |
Nathan Myhrvold |
| 8. |
The US men's soccer team will win the World Cup before the Red Sox win the World Series. |
? years
02002 - ? |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Mike Elliot |
Ted Danson |
| 11. |
At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150. |
148 years
02002 - 02150 |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Peter Schwartz |
Melody K. Haller |
| 12. |
By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature. |
18 years
02002 - 02020 |
$2,000
$1,000 |
John Horgan |
Michio Kaku |
| 20. |
In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation. |
20 years
02003 - 02022 |
$2,000
$1,000 |
Peter A. Spark |
Alexander King |
| 30. |
The first discovery of extraterrestrial life will be someplace other than on a planet or on a satellite of a planet. |
? years
02002 - ? |
$2,000
$1,000 |
freeman j. dyson |
Peter A. Spark |
| 80. |
Evidence of extraterrestrial intelligence within the solar system will be confirmed before evidence from several light-years away. |
? years
02008 - ? |
$400
$200 |
Allen Tough |
H. Paul Shuch |
| 117. |
The annual average cost between 2003 and Dec 31 2005 of the total retail price (commercial and residential) per Kilowatthour of electricity in the United States will rise as calculated by the U.S. Departmentof Energy in chained (inflation-adjusted) U.S. dollars. |
3 years
02003 - 02005 |
$400
$200 |
Steven B. Kurtz |
Patrick C. Burns |
| 120. |
By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists. |
22 years
02003 - 02025 |
$800
$400 |
Kevin Kelly |
Stewart Brand |
| 126. |
Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy. |
? years
02003 - ? |
$400
$200 |
Patrick C. Burns |
Steven B. Kurtz |
| 129. |
As of August 2005 a Democrat is President of the US. |
2 years
02003 - 02005 |
$1,000
$500 |
Stewart Brand |
brian eno |
| 156. |
By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government. |
21 years
02004 - 02025 |
$800
$400 |
Thomas D. Quigley |
Steve M. Midgley |
| 197. |
The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005. |
5 years
02006 - 02010 |
$400
$200 |
Daniel K. Simon |
Glen F. Raphael |
| 291. |
Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees. |
6 years
02008 - 02012 |
$500
$250 |
Jason W. Galbraith |
Sam Stigler |
| 360. |
In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions. |
100 years
02008 - 02108 |
$400
$200 |
Franklin G. Forbin |
Jane Walter |
| 362. |
Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses. |
10 years
02008 - 02017 |
$1,000,000
$500,000 |
Warren Buffett |
Protege Partners, LLC |
| 367. |
By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as a team member/player. |
13 years
02008 - 02020 |
$500
$250 |
Thomas R. Leavens |
Nils Gilman |
| 382. |
Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth. |
10 years
02008 - 02018 |
$1,000
$500 |
Joe Keane |
Nick Damiano |
| 395. |
The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public. |
17 years
02008 - 02025 |
$1,000
$500 |
Tibor Pacher |
Paul A. Gilster |
