Prediction 120
By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.
Bet 120
Duration 22 years (02003-02025)
Predictor
Kevin Kelly
Challenger
Stewart Brand
Stakes $800
will go to All Species Foundation if Kelly wins,
or The Long Now Foundation if Brand wins.
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Taken as a whole, the evidence of the existence of a big foot in remote parts of the world is quite substantial. However without the existence of a body, this evidence will not be considered scientific. I bet that by 2025 either a body of a big-foot will be found dead or alive, or a collective mass of photographs, DNA samples, scat, and video could convince half of the primatologists. The latter is unlikely; it will most probably require a body. In any case, if one is not found by 2025, it probably won't ever be found. I bet one will be found. I suspect, but won't bet, that when found, this creature will prove to be of much higher intelligence than any other animal outside of humans.
As myth, bigfoot has enduring appeal. In the areas of Michigan and Wisconsin where I grew up, he's known as the Wendigo, whose stories have drawn many a young camper closer to the campfire. Enduring myths (King Arthur comes to mind) attract no end of hobbyist and sometimes professional research to establish facts behind the myth. Bigfoot has had half a century of such close attention, with zero persuasive result. I bet that an additional 22 years will add nothing significant to that zero.
A survey of working primatologists asking them whether they accept the existance of a large (greater than 2 meters) bi-pedal ape.
By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.
While I don't see that it's likely, I certainly don't discount the possibility that a large, undiscovered species of primate does exist. That is, there's no real evidence for it (there are as many stories about alien abductions) but there's no clear reason to believe that one doesn't exist. Personally I believe that the stories are exagerations of an overly large ape (most men are around 6 feet, but some can grow well over 7 feet).
As for why it would be more intelligent. I don't see any reason to claim that. Size certainly doesn't equate to intelligence, at least not in mammels. Perhaps you mean you think it is because it's managed to stay so concealed? That, to me, would be more indicative of a lack of curiousity which would probably lead to less intelligence.
Possible, but I wouldn't bet on it myself. If such evidence is found, my guess is that it won't be a specimen in the field, per se, but previously discovered evidence being held by people who don't realize its scientific value.
It seems likely that if a sasquatch-like creature exists and has been repeatedly sighted by humans, then its remains have already been found by humans. If the habitats overlap, then it would be mighty puzzling why no remains had not been found.
Frex, the 'recently discovered' large mammals in Southeast Asia were known to the locals, but just not to international scientists. To the locals, those were just indigenous animals; the locals had no idea (and not that much interest) in the idea that anyone else would be amazed by them.
As for the question of intelligence . . . I personally am not all that impressed with scientific efforts to date to rate animal intelligence, except in a broad range. Yes, a chimp is more intelligent than a mouse. Is a chimp more intelligent than a dolphin or gray parrot? I don't think the question can currently be answered intelligently (no pun intended).
I don't know that curiosity is necessarily linked to intelligence, though. Chimps are orders of magnitude more curious than gorillas, but I don't know that they're equally more intelligent.
I've put in my bid ($400) to turn Kevin Kelly's Prediction into a Long Bet; I hope he takes it. My logic is that the Bigfoot story is so widespread and enduring that a lot of search has gone to find one---to no effect. Two more decades of search won't change that.
Jane Goodall already believes that there may be a Sasquatch/Bigfoot/Yeti whatever you want to call it. She cited that too many people have claimed seeing it. IIRC she was interviewed on NPR.
Well this bet has almost been priven right, but in an opposite direction. Homo Florensis was discovered but they are very small not very large...
Actually, last month it was reported that a new 'giant' ape was discovered in Africa. Roughly the size of a gorilla, but much closer in appearance to a chimpanzee, it hasn't been carefully classified -- or, apparently, even photographed yet. I'm waiting to hear of a second scientific sighting, but the zoological community appears to be accepting the first expert report as genuine.
Of course, this has little impact on the question of sasquatch, etc. The apes in question are of roughly human height and heavier build, but they seem to be extremely rare and limited to only a small region of Africa.
People who are interested in whether or not Sasquatch exists should read through some of the thousands of first-person sighting reports that are collected, scrutinized, followed up on, classified and posted to the website of the Bigfoot Field Research Organization (BFRO) at www.bfro.net. Reading them can only lead you to one of two conclusions: 1. These people (or the vast majority of them, at least) are telling the truth, or 2. There are a whole bunch of really talented writers out there who have nothing better to do than craft long, detailed lies that perfectly -- and I mean perfectly -- use the styles, slang, grammar, misspellings, voices and emotions of a very diverse group of fictional persons. Needless to say, the investigators who interview the reporting parties on behalf of the BFRO also have to be in on the scam. And then of course there are all those hoaxters with their basement-produced giant feet -- some evidencing microscopic dermal ridging patterns on the sole that correspond to the peculiarities of primate dermal ridging -- and their 400-pound weights trudging around in remote areas. Dozens of them apparently. I wonder why those people don't have to work for a living?
It's gonna happen folks. And sooner rather than later. Keep an eye on Kentucky and Florida.
I think I have to side with Stewart here, whether or not the primate exists (or existed).
But, if I had to go find one, I would probably work backwards. High percentage of sightings in the St. Helens area at one time. What possible food sources could sustain a large primate in that area? Do remnants of other large mammals turn up during investigations, either in scat or in situ? I mean, I've seen bears, but never bear remains....
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