On the Record: Predictions

Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.

How Betting Works »

NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR

946. By 2033, adult obesity levels in the United States will be 50% or less of those reported in 2023. 10 years
02024-02033
Brant von Goble

943. Infant mortality will decrease and healthy lifespan increase worldwide by WHO statistics no matter how much climate change occurs between October 2023 and 31 October 2038. 15 years
02023-02038
Karl M Bunday

942. Within the next 20 years, there will be no agreement to build at least one 1000 MW nuclear reactor within the borders the Republic of Latvia Tuvāko 20 gadu laikā netiks noslēgta vienošanās uzbūvēt Latvijas Republikā vismaz vienu kodolreaktoru ar nominālo jaudu vismaz 1000 MW 20 years
02023-02044
Didzis Veinbergs

941. By 2048 (25 years from now), consumers in the US will not have the option to purchase a fully self-driving car lacking a steering wheel, yet possessing the equivalent transportation capabilities of a standard 2023 sedan. 25 years
02023-02048
Adam Cheyer

940. The total value of the short-term (vacation) rental market as a residential asset class will exceed that of the commercial real estate market by 2026, measured as total US market to total US market. 3 years
02023-02026
Clark S Twiddy

939. Within the next five years, no language learning model (LLM) will be used by a Western nation law enforcement actor to make a sole determination on whether or not someone should be arrested. 5 years
02023-02028
Mike Parks

938. S&P 500 will outperform Bitcoin by the end of 2140 (end of Bitcoin mining) ? years
02023-???
Edward Y Li

936. "By April 26, 2033, the number of countries reporting outbreaks of Candida auris will have increased by at least 50% compared to the current number of affected countries (as of September 2021), indicating that Candida auris has become an epidemic in multiple regions of the world. 10 years
02023-02033
Ezra R Bleau

935. World peace by October 30, 2150 128 years
02023-02150
Zachary J Waugaman

934. The market share of new electric light duty vehicles (per the US EIA definition) sold in the US will exceed 17% (>17% EV + PHEV market share) by the end of 2030. 8 years
02023-02030
Ryan D McGlothlin

more

Looking for predictions that challengers have already turned into bets? See Bets on the Record!