On the Record: Predictions
Discuss these predictions with the predictors themselves. If you decide you disagree, you can challenge a prediction and turn it into Long Bet.
NO.PREDICTIONDURATIONPREDICTOR
970.
India will be in the top 20 in the Olympics in 10 years i.e. by the 2036 Olympics, as measured by generally acceptable rankings (ranked by Gold, then Silver, then Bronze)
11 years
02026-02036
Aviral Bhatnagar
969.
Photon energies will cluster near 2.5 PeV: by January 1, 2036, at least one additional photon will be confirmed consistent with this value, and none will be confirmed at higher energy.
10 years
02026-02036
Matt Lorusso
968.
By 2050, the United Nations Security Council will cease to function as it is currently understood to, if it still exists at all.
24 years
02025-02050
Arkhos Winter
967.
By 2035, the DSM and diagnosis-centered therapy will dissolve in favor of direct nervous system reconsolidation.
? years
02025-???
Benjamin Krauth
966.
By 2040, Wikipedia will be widely considered irrelevant as a source of real understanding.
? years
02025-???
Benjamin Krauth
965.
By the year 2045, The Long Now Foundation will have formally ceased operations.
? years
02025-???
Benjamin Krauth
963.
By 2035 the US real estate market will start to see significant price divergence caused that is directly attributable to climate change.
10 years
02025-02035
Louis J Anderson
962.
In the next 5 years, the global market for health and coaching will rise at least 5 times
5 years
02025-02030
Oleg Moskvin
961.
By 2035, AI will not be able to generate a fully functional, ACID-compliant, testable, modern browser from just a natural language prompt.
10 years
02025-02035
Kenneth C Miller
960.
In a world where US politics is still dominated by the two current major political parties, Democratic and Republican, the first female POTUS will be a Republican.
? years
02025-???
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