Bet 13
By 2007, at least one of the traditional Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers (ILECs)/Regional Bell Operating Companines (RBOCs) (e.g. Verizon, SBC, Bell South, or Qwest) will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
Prediction 13
Duration 5 years (02002-02007)
Predictor
Andy Chapman
Challenger
TBA
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The ILECs survival depends upon the de facto monopolization of
consumer and, especially, business markets. Their capital structure
insures that, as true broadband networks are developed by cable and/or
wireless alternative carriers which can provide business grade services to
currently captive, high margin producing small and medium sized
enterprises, even modest market share losses in this sector alone will
cause them to lose creditworthiness and, thus, access to debt capital.
Outright default on existing debt plus the forced suspension of dividend
payments as the negative effects of leverage begins to manifest themselves
will wipe out equity value and force a bankruptcy filing(s). This, of
course, presumes dinosaur like inability to adapt to a changing
environment which, if not already, will certainly become self-evident.
Given the current mistaken obsession with telephone companies as key
players in delivering broadband services and supporting future economic
growth, and given the ILECs penchant for competition by means of lobbying
governments, the political reaction to this turn of events will make the
Penn Central bankruptcy look like a tea party in comparison. I further
predict that, as a result, a telephone industry equivalent of Amtrak
(let's call it Amphone) will be created to offload all of the currently
cross subsidized consumer phone business onto the backs of taxpayers who
will spend billions underwriting universal service for mostly undeserving
consumers who could pay for market based services instead (and mostly
will) while the ILECs fade into oblivion as wholesale "freight forwarders"
of marginal importance.
Andy Chapman is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.
By 2007, at least one of the traditional Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers (ILECs)/Regional Bell Operating Companines (RBOCs) (e.g. Verizon, SBC, Bell South, or Qwest) will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection.
As far as one of the mentioned companies going bankrupt, Qwest will almost certainly be forced into chapter 11 by 2003 or 2004 at the latest. Whether or not they get a gov't (taxpayer) bailout is uncertain. I certainly hope not! Companies that are inefficient need to go out of business to allow for better organized ones to rise and succeed. Gov't interference in this process is counter-productive in the long run. Unfortunateley, political intervention in the economy has become all too common in this country (The USA) these days. Don't let the capitalism label fool you, we are only marginally less socialist than other economies, and some kind of gov't assistance to these 'dinosaurs' is almost inevitable.
However these companies still have a monopoly in the telephone marketplace which generates 100 billion dollars annually. Remember that the highest penetration of any communication service in U.S. households is the plain 'ol phone. They could not invest another red cent in any future services and still be fine. Until emergency 911, universal lifeline, owning the "last mile" and quality are not factors they will monopalize. They would have to blow themselves up for you to win this bet.
Another thing to look at is companies like worldcom, gobal crossing, covad and the like. They failed because they tried to enter and compete in that market. As for the possibility of cable companies entering into the telephone service business, "Never bite the hand that feeds you."
While the bet seems like a no-brainer on the surface, it is assumed that wireless technology will ultimately prove to be as reliable as land-line service. This may very well happen...but probably not by 2007. From my reading of the capabilities of the current wireless technology, it appears that reliability will be the ultimate challenge to be overcome. Even when wireless becomes the medium of choice, I believe that the ILECs will control the "last mile", land-line or no, between the consumer and the switch.
There are many valid arguments for unseating the dominant RBOCs in favor of competition. New competitors bring advanced technology, better prices to consumers, better services than the bohemoth incumbent operators. The reality is the RBOCS still have a stronghold on the last mile in the local loop to the customer premise. This last mile is prohibitively expensive for new ILECs to pay for to access the same customers. ILECS and competitors find it less expensive to lease lines and pay interconnection fees to the RBOCs than to build out the last mile of copper/fiber to the customers. The result is RBOCs are in a win-win situation when competitors enter the local service market. The only way to unseat the RBOCs, beyond wireless local loop technology (which won't be implemented until broadband wireless is reliable and cheap), is for the government to give tax incentives and/or some type of subsidies to emerging ILECs to build and operate their own lines to the customer. Until then, ILECS and wireless carriers will focus on "cream skimming" at the biggest commercial office, retail and residential apartment buildings. It's a damn shame too because local loop competition, like the apathetic RBOC customer service reps say, will have to "hold please."
What everyone seems to forget is that telephone lines place telecommunications in the category of natural monopolies, which only operate profitably in the ABSENCE of competition. The large investment required for other hardware---including satellites---additionally places telecommunications in the `de facto natural monopoly' category. Leasing infrastructure to competitors, which is always done at a `wholesale' rate (or less than the infrastructure owner would otherwise realize) is a reduction in revenue that hinders the owners' ability to expand markets, offer new services, and earn profits.
The Justice Department's failure to recognize telecommunications as a natural monoply was one of its greatest errors. Since the demand for telecommunications is great and will continue to grow, there is no need for an `AmPhone'. The best cure is to re-unite the operating companies back into AT&T.
No, the bet specifies the Incumbent Local Exchange Carriers who still enjoy partial monopoly status and whom are generally not seen as subject to market forces. This bet argues against that assumption at least up until the point where the govt decides to intervene...
Many of the original poster's observations are quite accurate, though some of his conclusions are outlandish. The main problem is that he focused on the word "bankruptcy". In fact, US telecom authorities have shown time and again that they are orders-of-magnitude more concerned about cessation of service, not mere bankruptcy. In fact, part of the problem here is that our government is all too willing to allow companies to reorganize, re-enter the marketplace with debts wiped clean, and quite possibly fall into the same old mistakes as before, leading to a second or third, or umpteenth Chapter 11 proceeding.
Though he focused on the RBOCs, the test of who is correct here will be MCI. If the company is pressed much harder than at present (August 03) by its competitors, the CEO may actually threaten to close up shop. Watch, I predict, as the government jumps to prevent that by whatever means are at its disposal. Compared to cessation of service, bankruptcy is a mere cavil.
With WCOM, now MCI, prepared to emerge from bankruptcy this year despite heavy lobying by several ILECs, RBOCs and, Trade Unions, will force the competition to evaluate themselves and see that filing for bankruptcy is the only logical solution remaining for them to be able to compete with MCI in the marketplace. The current campaign of lobyying tactics, charges of "improper" routing of calls and a plethora of other charges are nothing more than a tactic meant to delay, as much as possible, not only the emergence of MCI from bankruptcy but their inevitable declaration of the same fate.
I would like to start by saying that most everyone has very interesting thoughts on the matter. I hope I do not dissappoint. Telephones will never go away. They will not be the same as we remember them but they will be there. In the early 80'2 the phones were changed from analog to digital which gave us touch tone phones. Now the telecomm revolution is starting again where traditional lines for the cable, phone, satellite, etc. are all being replaced by just one fiber optic line. You could call it the telephone revolution or telco evolution. Eventually will they go away? Perhaps once we mearly have to think to communicate. But the names of companies will come and go. Which was the question in the first place.
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