Bet 137
"The Long Bets Foundation will no longer exist in 2104."
Prediction 137
Duration 100 years (02003-02104)
Predictor
Frank Toms
Challenger
TBA
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Long term thinking is counter to human nature. A few enlightened individuals are the exception, not the rule. There are not enough of them, and they do not have enough power to prevent the idiots from destroying our world. Some cataclysmic event will wipe us out in the next 100 years. It might be through deliberate human action, such as the use of weapons of mass destruction. I think it is more likely to happen through neglect or negligence, such as an environmental catastrophe. It may even be something completely external, such as a large meteor strike. Whatever the cause, human society will go the way of the dinosaurs. There will be no more internet. If anyone survives who remembers the Long Bets Foundation, they will think of it as the ultimate joke on humanity. My departed soul will rejoice to lose this bet.
Frank Toms is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.
I don't want to split hairs here, but shouldn't this be a prediction until it gets a challenger?
Simone
You have a post on my Discussion page. All it does is repeat the title of the bet. What does this mean?
I am SHOCKED that representatives from the Long Now foundation haven't taken this bet. Put your money where your mouth is and call this bet.
Having taunted the Long Now founders, let's discuss this bet. I think the odds of the Long now foundation lasting for 100 years are pretty good. However if the foundation doesn't get more visibility and membership the form it will take is likely to be as a division of some larger public organization like a museum or a library.
And the blame for this lack of independence will rest at the feet of the founders. I have visited this site over the past few years and each tome I come here there is little if any new information to show progress. Now I realize that we should be thinking on a 10,000 year scale but so few updates over the past 2 years shows a tremendous apathy on the part of the foudation.
To think long term we need to start thinking about today and tomorrow.
Hi there. The post with my name and the title of the bet is automatically generated as the first post when I create the discussion section.
I couldn't help noticing that Toms appears to have disagreed with his own Bet! Back on January 27 2004, no less; before I even voted. Despite this, the votes still favor his argument. Perhaps it is people showing a general depression and cynicism; I will have none of it!
Errm, Won't we all be dead by then anyway ? I'ts kinda pointless betting on something whereby we wont see the outcome either way.
Its a bit like me saying I bet I die before you!
Going on my gut I disagree.
To say that our future, our children will not think in the long view is truly a horrible thought.
The technology may change and possibly the name "Long Bets" but the ideas, thoughts and bets will continue on forever.
Long Bets are here to stay.
The human race will still exist in 100 years. The Internet will also follow suit and still be kept up by the people. Whether or not the Long Now Foundation will still exist in 100 years is a craps shoot at best, aside from the possibility of rather hefty charges they receive from the banks on the bets acrueing interest.
The problem I see with this prediction (bet) is that it automatically assumes that the Long Now Foundation will cease to exist for entirely the same reasons that the human race would ultimate stop existing. So the prediction should be more along the lines of "Within 100 years, the human race will have gone the way of the dinosaurs." (which in itself is another prediction or close to it).
What happens if the other 90% of the prediction is falsified? Say the human race and a much faster version of the Internet exists in 100 years? But say the Long Now Foundation is long defunct. He would still lose his bet I would think. Millions of websites cease to exist every year, but I doubt any of them went away because the human race ceased to exist.
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