Prediction 143

Duration 16 years (02004-02020)

“By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.”

Predictor
Rob Schnitzer

Challenger
TBA

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Schnitzer’s Argument

There is a clear need for such a technology to exist. All too often objects are left in one place while they are needed by the owner at another location. While overnight delivery has been accepted by many to minimize the momentary loss there is still the need for immediate receipt of the missing object.

Technology is in place for the faxing of words and pictures, so what not for the "faxing" of actual objects.

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Bet 143

By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the "faxing" (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.

Re: Bet 143

Does this have to be actual matter transmission, or can it simply be (like an actual facsimile machine) a reproduction at the receiving end?

Personally, I don't expect actual teleportation in the foreseeable future. However, it's not inconceivable that the rapid remote assembly of streamline goods, on demand, could be plausible within, say, twenty-five years.

This would be more analogous to "printing" inanimate objects than to "faxing" them, though, as no original object would be necessary -- just a computerized blueprint. So . . . I'm not sure if that would validate the bet or not.

Re: Bet 143

Well, there's no actual matter transmission in faxing, so if we're using that analogy, it certainly doesn't have to be teleportation in that sense.

And, while assumably, matter "printing" would come first, faxing is just printing combined with copying, so he's claiming both that we'll be able to quickly make some sort of blueprint and be able to quickly assemble it from the blueprint.

I think it's possible. Matter printing is done quite often in engineering now. Make a 3D blueprint via Maya or similar program, plug it into a machine and a plastic model is produced. It's quite basic now though, I'd estimate more than 16 years.

---

What if we get really good at it? Say we could almost instantly make a blueprint of a human and then send it and "print" out the human? I'd say it's a reasonable possibility in the next 150 years. Tough on the ethics though.

Re: Bet 143

I think your right. They already have 3-D printers. They are talking about home models hitting stores in the next couple years. Digitize something, send it. They really can already do this in the business world. (Of course, it's just a copy.) Wired Magazine had an article on printable batteries. As for moving the real thing, IBM can 'Teleport' molecules at this point. The original molecule stays where it was, but the molecule on the other side of the room gains the quantum state of the original (whose quantum state is disrupted in the proccess), making the target molecule more 'original' than the original. (or is that less original, since it's a copy?)

Re: Bet 143

actually, it`s already here. it`s caleed 3d stereo lithography prototyping. @ first it was only for plastics, now it includes metals. & yes it`s still just a copy. that would suit me tho. can`t wait for the laptop model.

Re: Bet 143 [for Emmanuel Desurvire]

Post for Emmanuel Desurvire:

Surely enough, teleportation is going to stir the imagination of both scientists and laypeople for several generations, as experiments may progress and promise interesting applications.

From the discussion, however, it appears that there is some confusion of what (quantum) teleportation is about vs. "faxing", or "telereplication". It is probably going to stick to the subject ever and ever, no matter the efforts deployed by specialists. To get a reasonably accurate view of what teleportation is *not*, I may recommend the page

http://www.research.ibm.com/quantuminfo/teleportation/

To summarize (with my own words), teleportation would consist in translating a material object through space at the speed of light, without physically moving its constituent atoms or particles. The displaced object, or clone copy, is *not* built from the same atoms/particles. This would violate the Special Relativity principle that massive objects, even as elementary as electrons, cannot propagate at the speed of light. But as discussed further down, the information about this object can be transported through massless photons, at the speed of light.

A second condition is that the original object be lost in the process. Teleportation has therefore nothing to do with "faxing" or "telereplication". Faxing is like e-mail: sending bits through the network, so that the message information (ASCII text or digital picture or html page) is fully reconstructed on a screen or in a file at the other end.

Telereplication is something alike a remote factory. Assume one builds somewhere a melted gold container, with a computer activating on demand the making of gold ingots of standard size, shape and weight, with authentication sceal and serial number. With just a keystroke, one can activate the replication of a gold ingot from anywhere in the world. You don't even need any original, but just the "information" of what the duplicated ingot should exactly look like (warning: this is not a way to get instantly rich, though! [as an exercise, explain why]).

From the duplicated gold ingot, the set up could also re-create jewelry and the like. We may call this "telemanufacturing", which is basically remotely activating robots that build things according to a design. Thus, 3d printers and stereo lithography, which were mentioned earlier in the discussion fall into this category and are therefore not conceptually related to teleportation.

The key concept hiding behind teleportation (to make quantum mechanics a bit humane) is that material objects can be reduced to a "state": a piece of information, just like html script is to a web page. Such an information is carried by a wave, according to the De Broeglie wave-matter duality. In this view, an hydogen atom (electron bound to a proton) is the same in Sydney or in New York (or on Saturn); it is built from strictly identical wave information. This also applies to molecules, even as inert DNA. The trick of teleportation is the possibility to "scan" the object's state and effectively "tunnel" its wave from one place to the other, at the speed of light.

But let's not dream too much here. We are still waiting for someone to demonstrate the teleportation of actual *matter* (and not "telemanufacturing" of a single hydrogen atom..). So far, the experimental proofs of teleportation concern massless particules such as photons. Here again, it is not the photon which is teleported, but its information (eg. wave/state polarization), see

http://www.geocities.com/grymse/quantum.html

Intrestingly enough, when it comes to living objects (eg. DNA, neurons), the specialists seem to be extremely reserved. Why ? Are they afraid to go too far by reducing the living to a mere superposition of quantum states and getting religious people angry ? Or do they really know what life is, from a quantum viewpoint? This is where I personally feel that the whole subject of teleportation is contaminated by trickery (or even hoax), just like the promises that led the Internet bubble: too much hype from the media (who need to sell hot stuff), and too little reservation/restraint/warning from the specialists (who need the fundings).

Yet this remains a great subject, to dream and speculate about.

Re: Bet 143 [for Emmanuel Desurvire]

Emmanuel Desurvire's explanation of what he means by "teleportation" doesn't seem entirely sensible to me. To wit:

-- A second condition is that the original object be lost in the process.

This seems to be an entirely arbitrary condition. If the receiving-end "clone" is not built from the same particles as the original, then why should the original need to be destroyed? With existing or foreseeable technology, there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that the original would have to be destroyed for its "state" to be read. Ergo, there's no demonstrated reason why the original couldn't simply be "cloned" and yet itself retained.


-- In this view, an hydogen atom (electron bound to a proton) is the same in Sydney or in New York (or on Saturn); it is built from strictly identical wave information.

But it wouldn't be identical. For one thing, its position is different, which is not trivial. For another, its momentum would need to be different. A hydrogen atom "clone"-teleported from Sydney to New York would either need a different momentum or else it would have a different velocity and energy (temperature) upon arrival / creation. To or from Saturn would produce a much greater differential.

If the "clone" retains its original momentum (relative to the inertial frame), then teleportation invites the construction of free energy systems, in apparent violation of thermodynamics. I recommend Larry Niven's essay on teleportation, found in several of his anthologies, for a reasoned exploration of this sort of problem.


In any case, the actual bet, in Schnitzer's words, seems to be about telereplication by any means, and not necessarily teleportation. After all, if one sends a fax, the original document isn't necessarily (or even usually) destroyed in the process.

Re: Bet 143 [for Emmanuel Desurvire]

I think that what Emmanuel (forgive me if I'm wrong, Emmanuel) is talking about is teleportation by sending matter through a device that brings two widely-separated points in the universe together by making them both open in a "different" space, then bringing the "openings" together so that matter can simply be moved through one "opening" and emerge through the other with no awareness of passing through a large amount of intervening time or space in "our" universe.

Harry Harrison has written quite a few stories set around this concept (he calls the "other" universe "Bhattacharya space" in honor of the physicist who, in his fictional universe, invented practical matter transmission).

Physicists have actually posited conceptual ways in which this might happen - bringing two "doors" from our universe together despite their being far apart in time or space, so that one might travel large distances spatially or through time.

However, this has nothing at all to do with the bet as I understand it, which is (again, as I understand the bet), all about "quantum faxing."

I think that 2020 is a plausible time frame, since there's that one physicist who has already done things suggestive that he can make "quantum faxing" at least of strings of quanta happen despite the condition of the intervening space; I hate to use the word "merely" here, but all he has to do is go from quanta to subatomic particles of matter, to atoms, to molecules, to... Captain Kirk.

Re: Bet 143 [for Emmanuel Desurvire]

all he has to do is go from quanta to subatomic particles of matter, to atoms, to molecules, to... Captain Kirk.

In fifteen years?

I dunno. With all due respect, Vance, everything I've seen about current quantum teleportation projects has been pretty clear that there doesn't seem to be any known way to scale them up that way. I don't mean that there isn't any known mechanism; I mean there isn't (far as I know) any real theory for how to do that.

Personally, I think space-time is discontinuous and likely quite malleable, and wormhole-like teleportation, tesseracts, and other such beasties may well become plausible eventually. Fifteen years sounds too soon to me, though.

Re: Bet 143 [for Emmanuel Desurvire]

Mark wrote:

"
me> all he has to do is go from quanta to subatomic
me> particles of matter, to atoms, to molecules, to...
me> Captain Kirk.

Mark> In fifteen years?
Mark>
Mark> I dunno. With all due respect, Vance, everything I've Mark> seen about current quantum teleportation projects has Mark> been pretty clear that there doesn't seem to be any
Mark> known way to scale them up that way. I don't mean
Mark> that there isn't any known mechanism; I mean there
Mark> isn't (far as I know) any real theory for how to do
Mark> that.

Agreed.

However, history has shown us that properly motivated researchers can do a LOT in fifteen years.

Example: Einstein wrote his famous letter to FDR explaining that an atomic bomb was a definite theoretical possibility that the Allies might do well to investigate before the Axis did in 1939 - in the same year that nuclear fission was definitely shown to be the way that radioactive atoms disintegrate.

It took six years to go from that letter to working twenty-five kiloton (approx. yield) fission bombs; in fifteen years both the US and the USSR had thermonuclear weapons in the multi-megaton yield range, despite awesome difficulties in even developing a practical concept for nuclear fusion.

A new Cold War is already underway, with at least three, possibly four or five major players.

If quantum superposition can afford any of these players a disproportionate advantage either as military or economic technology, that would seem to justify at least as much focused technological research and development as was needed to go from speculation about fission bombs to working prototypes of thermonuclear weapons.

Mark> Personally, I think space-time is discontinuous and
Mark> likely quite malleable, and wormhole-like
Mark> teleportation, tesseracts, and other such beasties
Mark> may well become plausible eventually. Fifteen years
Mark> sounds too soon to me, though. "

I agree with you about the possible malleability of space-time, but I think that we're closer to beating it into useful shapes (sticking with the "malleability" metaphor) by means of superconductive crystalline lattices as was predicted in the Bose-Einstein conjecture. It seems to me that we have most of the math we need to scale the test models which have been reported in the literature so far up to devices which can deform space-time in front of and behind a spacecraft - presenting the intriguing possibility of a Alcubierre warp drive.

Which, of course, is not relevant to the wager we're discussing - it's just cool.

no i disagree

this is very fiction and unrealistic. and if they they do create thisx very strong technology its going to be in minimum 150 years pal

teleportation

No chance for teleportation in that amount of time. Probably never. No chance. I like to keep an open mind, but not so open that I have a bunch of holes in it. I think you would have a better chance of interdimentional travel with a "phasing" between dimensions than to teleport anything in a solid state.

teleportation.

Its not really a case of whether "faxing" can be done, it probably never will, simply because of logistical reasons.

But even it is was possible, should it be done?

For the first time, real-world objects would have a digital "mirror" (like a CD/DVD ISO) from which any amount of duplicates could be made.
If the faxing device was source-destructive, what would stop people from removing the destructive part of the sequence, effectively making it a duplicator.
Once duplicators exist, the world economy as we currently understand it will be rendered useless.

Object "images" could be traded online, the same way Mp3s or movies are done today (although we are looking at petabytes in size). Why would you buy anything when you could download the "image" and generate it yourself?

What about downloading an "image" of the so-called Fax machine itself? Or a gold bar? or any other precious commodity?



Re: teleportation.

I hardly feel equipped to respond to this after reading Vance's elegant and informed post.
I would love to think that this could happen but how can we really know what direction the next breakthrough will come, here we are still driving petrol cars, check this link for a thought provoking peice on that
http://www.tuxdeluxe.org/node/244
On teleportation, I have to side on the no's, if we figure that out we will be too busy transporting ourselves to the other dimensions and figuring out how life works in those to be tele porting books.

Re: teleportation.

I can easily see a market for the domestication of Stereo Lithography - http://computer.howstuffworks.com/stereolith.htm - in the not too distant future to allow a reciepient to get a 3d printout of an object.
Over time, as technology becomes cheaper & faster there will become a great many opportunities for the commercial exploitation of such a system.
The purchaser could download a 3d model of a plastic item - a piece of costume jewellery for example, and then replicate it using their own stereo printer. Not exacly teleportation of matter but a greatly increased method of delivery for objects of simple construction.

The purchaser could download

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