Prediction 149

Duration 20 years (02004-02024)

“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024.”

Predictor
Stuart Brannan

Challenger
TBA

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Brannan’s Argument

Although marking to market provides greater transparency to all bank stakeholders (shareholders, depositors, creditors) who have a legitimate desire to more fully understand the economics of a bank's business, the result would be a significant increase in earnings volatility. Increased volatility would make it more difficult for banks to play a stabilizing role in the economy and may make it more difficult for them to obtain stable access to capital.

In addition, marking to market actually involves large conceptual and technological challenges. Overcoming these would require significant investment in technology and cultuaral change.

As a result, banks will resist marking their loan portfolios to market for at least another 20 years.

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Bet 149

Posted by Simone P. Davalos on Apr 19, 02004 at 07:22PM

"US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the "banking book" be marked to market before 2024."

Re: Bet 149

Posted by Mark J. Wojcik on Dec 01, 02004 at 11:16PM

It took me a few tries to parse that correctly. It should probably read something like "US accounting and banking regulations will not require before 2024 that loan portfolios held in the 'banking book' be marked to market."

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