Bet 156
"By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government."
Bet 156
Duration 21 years (02004-02025)
Predictor
Thomas D. Quigley
Challenger
Steve M. Midgley
Stakes $800
will go to The United Nations if Quigley wins,
or The Peace Museum, Chicago IL if Midgley wins.
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The world's most serious issues today are global ones: self-perpetuating violence, skyrocketing energy demand, environmental damage and economic dislocation. No single country, even the United States, can solve these issues single-handedly. While the US attempts to do just that, the European Union is taking the opposite approach--uniting. In fact, Maastricht has been so successful that a shocking 25 countries are member nations. The GDP of the EU is roughly equal to that of the US. Western Europe has the highest voter turnout on the globe.
If the current trend continues, the world will soon be organized around the EU, or its successor, and the US. Globalists in the states will push for US accession. Since the US Constitution, amazing at it is, does not contemplate its own demise, it will need to be amended rather than dissolved. That process will go to the states.
I see this bet as essentially describing the economic trajectory of the US. If the strength of the US economy is surpassed in a substantial way (probably through a major US industrial stumble) then the US would have to look to global government as a port in the storm.
I think Quigley is pointing out correctly that Icarus' wings are soft but I will argue that the weight of US military power will suffice carry the US constitution through 2025 without so much as a vote of consideration for a global authority.
The predictor will win if, by 11:59 pm (US Central Time) on December 31st, 2025, all U.S. states have voted on a constitutional amendment to cede some or all constitutional power to a global government. The challenger will win in all other cases. A global government is one that was formed through the combination of other previously sovereign nations. The outcome of the vote has no impact on the bet.
"By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government."
The bet details are vague. Will this amendment cede all federal power? If so . . . no way. Definitely not in the next twenty years, barring a major dislocation of the status quo (such as a nuclear war).
Will this amendment cede some federal power? If so . . . then we've already accomplished that in principle (economically, especially, but also somewhat in terms of the World Court). We just haven't bothered with a Constitutional amendment.
Every time the Senate provides "advice and consent" to a treaty which commits the US to accept regulation by a UN agency (as we currently do by accepting frequency allocations for radio and television broadcasting, or in demilitarizing our current stocks of chemical weapons in compliance with the Chemical Weapons Convention), then it seems to me that the states have, through their elected representatives in the Senate, ceded the Federal government's authority in these matters.
Does the language of the bet require explicit cession of Federal authority to a multinational regulatory body? And does Senate ratification of a treaty qualify as such?
I don't know. Perhaps this is an area in which the bet can be further defined.
vfrickey, I think so. I think the language does suggest allowing a global organization some decision power. "Cede US federal power," what does that mean. A global authority would have at least minimal, perhaps strictly defined, absolute authority over one decision, one detail.
I would imagine resource allocation, power limitations, scope of affected corporations, local law, and such would have been hammered out before power is given up.
It's going to be a while before that happens. But who knows.
What about China. They may have more economic, political, and military influence over world events than the US within the century.
A global government probably will come when we see the future China/US cold war threaten our existence.
Before then? Can we something like world disaster response be given to a global government? Can all goverments allocate resources to the UN or some body that are necessarily given up when asked for?
"By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government"
I believe that the constitutional amendment in question is the federal constitution, but this should be clarified. The Massachusetts state Senate passed a resolution in the 1990's calling on the President and Congress to amend the federal constitution to allow the U.S. to participate in a world federal government. In addition, attempts (unsuccessful) have been made to allow Massachusetts voters to amend their state constitution to allow them to vote to exercise their right of self-government with both the U.S. gov and a future federation of democratic nations-all of which raises some interesting legal questions. In light of all this, the language of the question might benefit from being a little more precise. In addition, since establishing and participating in a supranational tier of government (not quite a treaty or alliance) may not be a power delegated to the US by the constitution, might this right be reserved to the states or the people? The thirteen colonies did not, I believe, amend their respective constitutions before joining the American Federal Union.
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