Bet 168
"By 2050 the most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants."
Prediction 168
Duration 46 years (02004-02050)
Predictor
Danny Hillis
Challenger
TBA
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The decaying plant life argument has always seemed implausible to me, and I see no strong evidence that it is true. Thomas Gold has made a good case for an alternative theory in "Deep Hot Biosphere". While there are problems with Gold?s theory also, it seems to me be closer to the truth. (The risky part of this bet is whether geologists will figure it out in 45 years.)
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"By 2050 the most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants."
My understanding is that there seems to be some plausibility, especially, to 'methane ecology' sources for geological oil and gas reserves, moreso than non-biotic theories. I suppose that would qualify as a 'win' for this bet, if it becomes sufficiently accepted, as the source would be living organisms rather than dead ones.
I believe that pockets of gas and oil were created in the aftermath of an extinction of species, plants, and bio, micro organisms in the last extinction (The sixty five million year theory). Everything settled to the bottom of the ocean and nature took its course.
The most heavily funded field of science in the last century was not rocket science or nuclear physics or chemistry or even medicine. It was geology in the service of the petroleum industry. The very reason we have found nearly all the oil there is to be found on the earth is due to the intimate comprehensive understanding that petroleum geologists have of the processes over eons that led to the deposits of oil being where they are today. If real petroleum geologists are sure of anything, it is of the biological origins of the overwhelming majority of all exploitable accumulations of hydrocarbon fuels.
This topic is constantly brought up and shot down on peak oil discussion sites. It seems many prefer belief systems with much happier outcomes than those predicted by projecting the trends of oil discovery, production, and depletion to their logical conclusions.
Just ran across the following
"Generation of Methane in the Earth;s Mantle: In Situ..."
http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov/articlerender.fcgi?artid=521091
Found via Freeman Dyson's "The Scientist as Rebel" chapter on Thomas Gold
thanks for this post- and the bet. Strange that there is still precious little
re: abiogenesis theories on the net.
why then are there a zillion different blends of hydrocarbons in different fields and different yeilds from the same fields of crude oil if it is abiotic? this is ridiculous to even discuss except for methane that is a simple molecule therefore the simpler the molecule the possibilty of it existing abiotically - which has been drilled for before and never found despite yes some planets having seas of methane. If there is abiotic methane here it is probably trapped somewhere we haven't found probably becasue it doesn't exist here on earth very much abiotically but the question should have been proposed more scientifically. How large the deposits of abiotic methane could be if any here are anyones guess but since it is not very dense it shouldn't be anywhere but on the surface or very close to it and that answer would be best found by doing some drilling in the antartic
This is preposterous. Sure you can bet on that, but it is like betting that that biologist will some day agree that evolution fails as general principle of speciation, or that physicists will agree that the universe is not many billion years old... if that would happen it would be for political reason, i.e. because some religious nuts have eventually managed to run science, not because fact has taught us so...
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Media outlets didn't sensationalize the story? In the United States it was on most channels constantly even though there had been less than 20 confirmed deaths or cases, and details were never given whether or not there were other factors involved. This story was as sensationalized as you could get, given the fact that there are more deaths in this country due to our open Southwestern borders on a monthly basis than there was due to he swine flu. And I guess unless you lived on a U.S. border in a border state you would have absolutely no concept of what is actually going on there. And they do quarantine animals in England for over 12 months in order to protect the animal populations there. What a spin. Do you happen to work for the mainstream media?see online :
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