"A machine capable of passing the Turing Test will be made in 2075 using only hardware that was available in 2005."

in 2075 a machine will be able to pass the turning test, was a OK prediction but , i dont think it will be from 2005 hardwares! The machine who will be able to pass the turning test will not be able to work in a 500 mb, or 1 gb ram!

So by that argument I could also run Windows Vista on a punch-card super computer from the 1950's?

I agree that in the year 2075 better models for handling natural language will exist. This will allow software to run more efficiently on 2005 processors and memory. However, I predict that (external) disk requirements will be huge as all worldly wisdom and encyclopedic knowledge including professional terminology has to be accessible to handle random questions. But I don't see why 2005 hardware would not be able to handle several terabytes of diskspace. There will be some gaps i.e. questions that the machine cannot handle, but so would any human being competing with a machine in a Turing test scenario.

Correct me if I am wrong. But haven't chatbots built prior to 2005 already been able to make a human judge believe they are speaking with a human? Of course, this challenge was accomplished by way of simply mimicking speech patterns, and not raw thinking "intelligence." But then again, conversation may simply be a function of simply mimicking speech patterns.

I think Kevin's assertion is true that it could be done, but I don't think any person will successfully boot a seventy year old machine and get Kevin's AI to cross-compile, and the AI won't be nostalgic until 2145.

Even supposing the premise of the claim is true (i.e., that AI could run on 2005 vintage hardware), the wording suggests that you would have to demonstrate this on real 2005 hardware, or at least a replica thereof, to win the bet. I doubt it will be practical to obtain that hardware in 2075, let alone get it operable. Moreover, even if you could, why would you? It would be a great deal of work yielding limited benefit for either the AI or the researcher(s) that created it.

This would have been a more plausible (although still not all that plausible, IMO) claim if it had been phrased in terms of the computing requirements; e.g., AI passing the Turing Test can run with less than 1 peta-operations per second.

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