Bet 179
By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form.
Prediction 179
Duration 5 years (02005-02010)
Predictor
Vinton G. Cerf
Challenger
TBA
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At some point, laptop or smaller devices with high quality displays and suitable access controls for intellectual property will make the sale
and consumption of books, sound and movies through these devices practical. Audio devices, such as Apple's iPOD, offers an example.
Carrying around a bunch of paper is unnecessary and despite the argument that a book doesn't need a battery or a re-charge, I believe that it will be very common for people to read for work and for pleasure with
the same device(s) they use daily to do their work. I don't think books are going away of course. And if electronic reading devices have not penetrated widely enough on a worldwide basis by 2010, I will lose my
bet :-)
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By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be read on digital devices rather than in print form.
Is there even one widely used ebook reader yet? We'll probably see one by 2010. My likely bet is on Apple. They'll improve on screen reading and navigation. At least on a desktop. Will they have a portable reader by then? Could be.
The technology to create a very thin super light weight tablet may exist by 2010. If it doesn't, will we start to read more books on the computer?
DRM is taken care of. It seems to be.
Regardless of device possibilities, I think publishers may sell physical books together with an electronic version. Packaging a DRMed ebook with the real book will happy. Why can't I buy an electronic version online, and pickup a physical version anytime? My purchase could let some retailer like Borders know I am allowed to take ownership of a specific book at anytime.
I think the first event will be, buying physical books includes the ebook.
Someone needs to create a reader first. PDF isn't bad. Software readers like Acrobat need improvement. Once we have software, it'll take the convincing of one publisher to package books together.
Steve Jobs will soon be on the board of Disney. He'll can get started. Disney could publish childrens books with acompanying electronic versions. That could nicely get children excited about computers and technology.
Will some other group of companies do it? Maybe Google.
So we'll at least start on a great increase by 2010.
What's the percentage now? Far less than 1 percent I imagine.
Given the size of certain economies (and their publishing industries), is this really a bet about the prevalence of digital readers, or the prevalence of digital readers in only the most developed countries.
Even so, I would have to think this is too short of a time horizon, and am considering the bet. Not to mention, are you considering the sale of used books within this prediction/bet? And finally, I just want to confirm that this is based on the count of books, not dollar volume.
Signed
The Luddite
We've had a bunch of discussions here about digital print literature before. I still think that electronic books will most likely catch on as soon as prices come down, which is mostly a question of scales of production, and formats become more pleasant.
I also still think e-paper is the likely answer, and that the first really successful electronic books will 'look and feel' a heck of a lot like printed books.
It's already technologically possible to produce a book that looks like a regular book but has e-paper pages whose 'print' can change on demand. Very little power is needed to change the print, and no power is used while the display is static. A cheap memory stick could fit into the binding (along with small rechargeable batteries), allowing storage for hundreds of books' worth of content, including illustrations.
Phillips currently has e-paper that can do full-motion video. Nothing so gaudy would be necessary for a successful e-book, but it's likely that e-books would soon have the same capabilities as current laptop computers.
Almost no one wants to read large amounts of type off of even large-sized LCD screens in the same way that they would sit down and read a book or magazine. Current e-paper technologies make much more pleasant displays than LCDs on the market now. There's zero flicker, no contrast issues, better resolution, etc.
I agree with Cerf’s argument that "At some point ..." the majority of the world will turn to electronic devices, but believe 2010 is a few decades too soon. The U.S. and other industrial countries will reach the 50% mark long before the 3rd world which will depend on printed books as long as they are 3rd world. Additionally, the primary driver for adaption won't be consumer demand for electronic devices, but the supply of paper for the books. As long as the paper used to print them is relatively cheap, books will predominate.
I figure this is likely to happen by 2020, but that 2010 as in the terms of the bet is too soon. Currently, the technology required for electronic books is available, but too costly an initial outlay for the average person. Books can be purchased one at a time, making them perhaps more expensive in the long term for a collector, but more readily affordable in the short term.
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