Join the Discussion
Bet180
"Science fiction author Michael Crichton has predicted the world will warm by 0.81 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. Thomas Wigley and Sarah Raper ("Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming," Science Magazine, Volume 293, 20 July 2001) examined the projections of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the IPCC's Third Assessment Report (TAR). Wigley and Raper concluded that the IPCC TAR projections were for a 50/50 chance of 3.06 degrees Celsius of warming from 1990 to 2100. I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere (the atmosphere from roughly zero to 20,000 feet), as measured by satellites, will be closer to Michael Crichton's predicted value of 0.81 degrees Celsius, than the IPCC's value (via Wigley and Raper) of 3.06 degrees Celsius. In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius. Measurements should be done as a 3-year average centered around the year in question (i.e. 1989, 1990 and 1991, compared to 2099, 2100 and 2101). My bet is only open to members of the IPCC."
Re: Bet180
Betting that one or another group of experts has mis-predicted the change in global temperature for the next century isn't terribly controversial. The IPCC's predictions weren't hard and fast, and they hedged their own bets, and quite wisely.
But . . . why the heck would anyone invoke Michael Crichton in this kind of debate? He's a popular author. He's certainly no expert on science, and his track record for science-related predictions is no better than one would expect. This is no slur against Crichton or his fans -- I've enjoyed some of his books myself -- but raising him as an apparent authority on climate change is just bizarre. And unnecessary, since there's no need for an appeal to authority when you're challenging a fuzzy 100-year weather forecast.
Re: Bet180
Mark Wojcik writes, "But . . . why the heck would anyone invoke Michael Crichton in this kind of debate?"
Quite simply, I "invoke" him because he made a projection. And the IPCC made a projection in their Third Assessment Report (TAR). And I think that Michael Chrichton's projection is likely to be more accurate than the projection in the IPCC TAR.
"He's a popular author. He's certainly no expert on science,..."
Who he is isn't relevant in a matter of science. The only question in a matter of science is who is right (and who is wrong).
"... but raising him as an apparent authority on climate change is just bizarre."
Who has "raised him as an apparent authority on climate change?" Not I!
"And unnecessary, since there's no need for an appeal to authority when you're challenging a fuzzy 100-year weather forecast."
There's no need "for an appeal to authority" in ANY matter of science. Like I wrote above, in matters of science, the question is who is right and who is wrong. I think Michael Chrichton is likely to be more right than the IPCC was in its TAR.
If any person in the IPCC disagrees with my opinion (that Michael Crichton's projection is more accurate than in the IPCC TAR), they can bet me.
William Connolley and Gavin Schmidt are included
When I made this bet, I stated that it was only open to "members of the IPCC." I meant "any authors of the IPCC Third Assessment Report (TAR)."
However, when I wrote that, I thought that Gavin Schmidt and William Connolley of the website "Real Climate" were primary or secondary authors of the IPCC TAR. My understanding now is that Gavin Schmidt was not, and I don't know about William Connolley. In any case, this bet challenge is specifically open to both of them. I am predicting that the warming of the globe, as measured by satellite measurements of the lower troposphere, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius. I challenge both of them to either agree or disagree with this prediction.
Re: William Connolley and Gavin Schmidt are included
Why are you limiting the bet to authors of the IPCC Third Assessment Report?
Re: William Connolley and Gavin Schmidt are includ
I'm limiting the bet to primary or secondary authors of the IPCC assessment reports (or William Connolley and Gavin Schmidt) because the IPCC authors made the "projections." I want them to put their money where their mouths are.
Exponentially warmer
When the ice and snow that is permanently covering the grounds near our polar zones melts, the carbon (and the "pollutions") that have been stored up for many thousand years will be released in a very short time. This will exponentially increase the effect with witch we currently affect our atmosphere. The temperatures will increase faster... since these stored carbon atoms will bind the oxygen atoms and form greenhouse gases.
AND as a disregarded result we will have less oxygen to breath, Air will get "thinner" and in the long run suffocate life as we know it.
How we choose what to believe
In a prediction of world climate, we can go with the world's leading climatologists, or with a science fiction writer. Hmmmm.
Where are all the "world's leading climatologists"?
"In a prediction of world climate, we can go with the world's leading climatologists, or with a science fiction writer. Hmmmm."
If the world's leading climatologists really believe their predictions, why hasn't even one of them bothered to come here and accept my challenge?
Posted by Fast Eddy
on Aug 26, 02008 at 07:54PM
A great bet! Wish I had thought of it.
Posted by Fast Eddy
on Aug 26, 02008 at 07:57PM
A great bet! Wish I had thought of it.
I would take the predictors side. An easy choice since the past 100 year trend is actually downward in temperature.
Alternate bet: the mean average sea level will remain unchanged over the next 100 years, deviating less than the mean average sea level of the last 100 years. That would be less than 1 inch (2.54 cm.)
Choosing your challengers...
"If the world's leading climatologists really believe their predictions, why hasn't even one of them bothered to come here and accept my challenge?"
Perhaps they are satisfied with staking their credibility on making their claims in their already published reports and don't feel it is necessary to take the time to challenge your prediction of the fulfillment of Michael Crichton's prediction here? Perhaps your audacious flaunting of another man's idea and repeated replies and taunts in response to your own "prediction" have been a deterrent to those that may have at first seen it as worthy of a legitimate challenge?
Or it could be due to the fact that they are unaware of your post on this website.
I provide for you here the IPCC contact information so that you may inform your predestined challengers of your prophecy:
Phone: +41-22-730-8208/84
E-mail: IPCC-Sec@wmo.int
Perhaps they are satisfied
Posted by ffn n. n
on Oct 09, 02009 at 06:28PM
شات سعودي
منتديات
توبيكات
العاب
توبيك سعودي
توبيك
Posted by Bill Wang
on Oct 26, 02009 at 09:21PM
UGG boots, UGG Classic Tall Boots, UGG Classic Cardy boots, UGG Classic Metallic Boots, UGG Classic Mini Boots, UGG Classic Short Boots, UGG Ultra Short Boots, UGG Ultra Tall Boots, UGG Bailey Button Boots, UGG Nightfall Boots, UGG Sundance II Boots, UGG Boots 5812, UGG Boots 5802, UGG Boots 5819, UGG Boots 5854, UGG Boots 5825, UGG Boots 5815, UGG Boots 5225, Timberland shoes, Gucci shoes, Prada shoes, Gucci bags, Coach bags, Prada bags, Adidas sunglassess, D&G sunglasses , Dior sunglasses, MLB jerseys, NFL jerseys, NBA jerseys, NHL jerseys
gucci men's shoes
one day i went shopping outside,and in an gucci shoes store,I found some kinds of gucci shoes i love most.they are:
ed hardy mens tops ed hardy mens tops ed hardy mens hoodies ed hardy mens hoodies ed hardy mens jeans ed hardy mens jeans ed hardy mens wwim trunks ed hardy mens wwim trunks ed hardy mens underwear ed hardy mens underwear ed hardy mens shoes ed hardy mens shoes ed hardy womens swimwear ed hardy womens swimwear ed hardy womenst-shirt ed hardy womenst-shirt ed hardy womens tops ed hardy womens tops ed hardy womens tanks ed hardy womens tanks ed hardy womens hoodies ed hardy womens hoodies ed hardy womens jeans ed hardy womens jeans
ed hardy
links of london Sweetie Bracelets links of london Sweetie Bracelets
links of london Friendship Bracelets links of london Friendship Bracelets
links of london Charms links of london Charms
links of london Bracelets links of london Bracelets
links of london Necklaces links of london Necklaces
links of london Earrings links of london Earrings
links of london Rings links of london Rings
links of london Pendants links of london Pendants
links of london Silver Chain links of london Silver Chain
links of london letters charm links of london letters charm
links of london friendship links of london friendship
links of london valentine's bracelet links of london valentine's bracelet
links of london classic sweetie links of london classic sweetie
ugg boots
Posted by mary lucy
on Nov 10, 02009 at 11:36PM
ugg boots sale-Warm ugg boots for all the family remain at the heart of our collection,find your favorite UGGs from stunning designs-ugg boots uk.
nike dunks-Strong grips,durable ankle support and very comfort. are the most desirable skate shoes.Get your nike sb dunks Now!Free shipping
All kinds of adidas shoes On Sale.We hot sell the latest Adidas Shoes&
cheap adidas shoes.The products are first-class quality,
adidas shoes sale welcome you to purchase.
UGG Boots sale
ugg boots UK Classic UGG Boots ensure your toes are in heaven,ugg boots made by UGG Australia are your must-have boots.50-70% off.Free shipping.
ugg sale
I would like to buy ugg australia,ugg sale,ugg boots sale,uggs ,cheap uggs,nike dunk,UGG Bailey Button boots,nike sb for sale,UGG Nightfall boots,nike sb,UGG Classic Cardy Boots,UGG Classic tall boots,nike dunk high,UGG cardy boots,button ugg boots,bailey button ugg,ugg button boots,Bailey Button boots,discount nike sb,Michael jordan shoes,genuine ugg boots，
and so on.
Classic Tall Ugg Boots on sale!,We are professional supply Ugg bailey button Classic Short Ugg Boots is your best choice,free shipping and nontax,only need 1 week to your door!Uggs Boots on sale
ugg boots sale
ugg boots sale at a time when large heat has set off a winter 08/09 to Ewha.Outlines the warm wool winter fashion degree to wool crocheted wool ugg boots uk to join after the body does not stimulate your skin soft, soft comfort UP. Fashion can not without ugg boots presence in Winter.and ugg boots have many series.such as:
UGG Bailey Button boots
ugg nightfall
ugg classic and
button ugg boots
bailey button ugg
ugg button boots
Comments are temporarily closed.
Posted by admin
Due to SPAM problems we have disabled commenting on Long Bets until we can institute
automated filtering. Sorry for the inconvenience.
