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Bet 196
"I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 degrees Celsius over the next 20 is more accurate than the Lindzen/denialist position that temperatures are as likely to decrease as increase. Choosing a prediction that is halfway between the consensus and the denialist viewpoints, I predict that temperatures will increase by at least .15 degrees Celsius from 2005 to 2025. This bet is open to anyone who wants to accept it."
Posted by Fast Eddy
on Aug 26, 02008 at 08:02PM
One sure thing: change. Three tenths of a degree is well within the measurement errors of the base line, so this bet could go either way or both ways ...
Most "denialists" would be unsurprised by a 0.15 C increase by 2025, even though we have recently seen cooling. That implies about 0.6C by the end of the century which is less than Earth had during the Mediaval warming, let alone the late Roman period & is therefore not remotely the catastrophic warming we are promised.
If the author wishes to put up a bet that there will be catastrophic warming as forecast (somewhere between the 3 C forecast by Sir David King & the "Antarctica being the only inhabitable continent forecast by Sir David King, or the degree every 20 years forecast by Hansen or indeed the 20 ft sea level rise forecast by Saint Al I would be much more interested in taking him up. Currently he has put up a bet that the "denialists" are broadly right which I am not willing to bet against.
I agree with Neil: the bet as stated would support the skeptic's view (denialist is rather derogatory, as if science can ever be settled!). A temperature rise of 0.15C is noise, and should not attract any precious ressources to prevent it. The bet should also determine what data series will be used for temperatures: GISS or UAH? The divergence between the two data sets (against their 1979-1998 average) was .46C in Dec. 2008, 3 times greater than the bet's level. I think Brian should step up to the plate, and set his temperature target at the catastrophic level of 0.6C per decade (1.2C in 20years), which is closer to the level that should cause concern and invite a policy response.
I agree with Neil
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