Bet 197

Duration 5 years (02005-02010)

“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” detailed terms »

Predictor
Daniel K. Simon

Challenger
Glen F. Raphael

Stakes $400
will go to The Post Carbon Institute if Simon wins,
or The Property and Environment Research Center if Raphael wins.

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Simon’s Argument

The petroleum industry is very rapidly losing the ability to grow it's rate of production in response to the traditional year to year increase in demand. They are in fact at or near the point of global "Peak Oil" production, after which they will never produce oil at a greater rate. Soon this level of production will no longer be sustainable and worldwide oil production will begin to permanently decline to a small fraction of what it is today. One of the more obvious consequences of this crisis is that there will be a drastic reduction in the wasteful and inefficient use of personal motor vehicles in the United States out of economic necessity.
I am predicting that vehicle use will decline rather than grow in the next 5 years to bring attention to the imminence of the crisis. The Bureau of transportation statistics has never reported a growth of less than 15% in the total number of vehicle miles traveled in any 5 year interval since the beginning of the records in 1960. It would take an energy crisis of unprecedented seriousness beginning in the very near future to reverse that trend, and I am calling attention to the fact that such a crisis is almost certain.

Raphael’s Argument

When the rate of oil production ultimately does decline it will do so gradually and the price mechanism will encourage substitution into other forms of energy use. In the short run the US has the option of producing liquid fuels from shale and coal. In the long run we've got the option of making more efficient cars and/or substituting batteries and fuel cells that are recharged with power provided by gas, coal, solar, hydro, and nuclear power plants.

Five years is too short to expect much change in this area - we may not even have peaked by then. But once we do peak, it won't be much of a problem.

I expect the current long-term trend of gradual year-to-year increase in vehicle miles travelled will continue to 2010 and well beyond.

Detailed Terms

Consult the best available official estimate of highway vehicle miles traveled in the US in 2010 and compare with an equivalent metric for 2005 to see which number is larger. If the metric for 2005 is larger the predictor will win. Otherwise the challenger will win. Either the predictor or the challenger may concede defeat at an earlier date if they feel it is clearly evident that their opponent will win.


Assuming it's still around in 2010, our preferred data source is the Bureau of Transportation Statistics table of "US Vehicle Miles (millions)", subcategory "Highway, total", currently available as Table 1-32 here.

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Bet 197

Posted by Simone P. Davalos on Jul 11, 02005 at 06:47PM

"The petroleum industry is very rapidly losing the ability to grow it's rate of production in response to the traditional year to year increase in demand. They are in fact at or near the point of global "Peak Oil" production, after which they will never produce oil at a greater rate. Soon this level of production will no longer be sustainable and worldwide oil production will begin to permanently decline to a small fraction of what it is today. One of the more obvious consequences of this crisis is that there will be a drastic reduction in the wasteful and inefficient use of personal motor vehicles in the United States out of economic necessity. I am predicting that vehicle use will decline rather than grow in the next 5 years to bring attention to the imminence of the crisis. The Bureau of transportation statistics has never reported a growth of less than 15% in the total number of vehicle miles traveled in any 5 year interval since the beginning of the records in 1960. It would take an energy crisis of unprecedented seriousness beginning in the very near future to reverse that trend, and I am calling attention to the fact that such a crisis is almost certain."

Interesting prediction

Posted by Mark A. Bahner on Aug 03, 02005 at 03:40AM

This is a great prediction. It's very interesting, and well documented and thought out. I disagree; I think the highway miles traveled will be higher. But I already have several bets on Long Bets, and I don't feel strongly enough about this subject to put any money on it. :-)

alarmism , and post-carbon nonsense.

Posted by zeev kirsh on Feb 28, 02007 at 05:51PM

VMT is the fastest growing statistic. you're betting that an oil disaster will strike the united states and also that technology won't be able to figure a way to get around the problem of more expensive oil. This is alarmist. I only hope you don't want to be proven true, but, it seems like you alarmists want your predictions to come true because even though they spell disaster for the world, at least people will start listening to you.
i feel stupid for even writing this post.

crude oil futures for february 2010 are at 67 dollars.
why aren't you just buying these futures,http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=NYMEX_CL.

you alarmists crave attention but why not put your money where your mouth is? or are you to scared?

zeev

What is it with this need for crises?

Posted by Milo Kettler on Mar 15, 02007 at 02:31AM

It could just be that a rich nation like the US attains a car usage equilibrium. For instance, vehicle ownership has actually declined in Austria (another rich nation) in the last five years despite economic growth. Vehicle kilometers have only gone up by a few percent. Once everyone of working age owns a car there are only so many hours a day one can drive it. There is also a limit to how far you can live from work, even when a dense motorway network has been developed. Growth cannot continue for ever. A stagnation in the growth of car travel is actually a sign of prosperity, not of some over-hyped "peak oil crisis".

VMT appears to be peaking

Posted by Daniel K. Simon on Mar 28, 02008 at 08:56PM

"WASHINGTON (Reuters Mar 26, 2008 ) - As gasoline prices broke records in 2007, Americans cut back on their driving for the first time in more than 20 years, according to the U.S. Federal Highway Administration."
This does not come as an unexpected surprise. The government figures show an almost undetectable growth in 2006 over 2005. In fact the VMT graph has been pretty flat since 2004. 2005/2006 may very well prove to be the years of peak US VMT. Here is a graph thas shows this pretty clearly:
monthly us vmt chart

In answer to Mr. Kirsh: How would you know where I may or may not have put my money in response to this situation? Other than the obvious fact that I have given $200 to emphasize my belief in what I have predicted. Of course there are much more important ways to prepare yourself emotionally and materially for the consequences of peak oil than to attempt to enrich yourself on the misery of others. Perhaps you might consider learning what they are.


Use of cars is inelastic. . .

Posted by Jason W. Galbraith on Mar 28, 02008 at 10:31PM

even more so, I suspect, than the demand for oil. The suburbanization of the United States shows no signs of slowing down, nor are most people moving back to small towns where they might not have to drive so far. Most people don't have the option to drive fewer miles to work or the grocery store. As long as the population is going up, so will VMT.

Business Week: US road traffic falling

Posted by Daniel K. Simon on Apr 23, 02008 at 09:17PM

For 20 years now, workers in Palm Beach County, Fla., have been counting cars with sensors at strategic points along the county's 4,000 miles of roads. And as sure as the tide flows in the nearby Atlantic, nearly every year traffic volume has climbed at least 2%. But in 2007 there was a slight decline in the number of vehicles on the roads. And this year, traffic is down 7.5% through March. "We're seeing a very significant change," says county engineer George Webb. "We're having a good time speculating why."
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More evidence VMT is peaking

Posted by Daniel K. Simon on May 12, 02008 at 05:16PM

"February(2008) was the fourth consecutive month in which miles driven in the USA fell compared to the same month of the previous year, an analysis of Federal Highway Administration data shows." USA TODAY ARTICLE

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