Bet 197
Duration 5 years (02005-02010)
“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” detailed terms »
Predictor
Daniel K. Simon
Challenger
Glen F. Raphael
Stakes $400
will go to The Post Carbon Institute if Simon wins,
or The Property and Environment Research Center if Raphael wins.
Join the Discussion
Bet 197
"The petroleum industry is very rapidly losing the ability to grow it's rate of production in response to the traditional year to year increase in demand. They are in fact at or near the point of global "Peak Oil" production, after which they will never produce oil at a greater rate. Soon this level of production will no longer be sustainable and worldwide oil production will begin to permanently decline to a small fraction of what it is today. One of the more obvious consequences of this crisis is that there will be a drastic reduction in the wasteful and inefficient use of personal motor vehicles in the United States out of economic necessity. I am predicting that vehicle use will decline rather than grow in the next 5 years to bring attention to the imminence of the crisis. The Bureau of transportation statistics has never reported a growth of less than 15% in the total number of vehicle miles traveled in any 5 year interval since the beginning of the records in 1960. It would take an energy crisis of unprecedented seriousness beginning in the very near future to reverse that trend, and I am calling attention to the fact that such a crisis is almost certain."
Interesting prediction
This is a great prediction. It's very interesting, and well documented and thought out. I disagree; I think the highway miles traveled will be higher. But I already have several bets on Long Bets, and I don't feel strongly enough about this subject to put any money on it. :-)
alarmism , and post-carbon nonsense.
VMT is the fastest growing statistic. you're betting that an oil disaster will strike the united states and also that technology won't be able to figure a way to get around the problem of more expensive oil. This is alarmist. I only hope you don't want to be proven true, but, it seems like you alarmists want your predictions to come true because even though they spell disaster for the world, at least people will start listening to you.
i feel stupid for even writing this post.
crude oil futures for february 2010 are at 67 dollars.
why aren't you just buying these futures,http://quotes.ino.com/exchanges/?r=NYMEX_CL.
you alarmists crave attention but why not put your money where your mouth is? or are you to scared?
zeev
What is it with this need for crises?
It could just be that a rich nation like the US attains a car usage equilibrium. For instance, vehicle ownership has actually declined in Austria (another rich nation) in the last five years despite economic growth. Vehicle kilometers have only gone up by a few percent. Once everyone of working age owns a car there are only so many hours a day one can drive it. There is also a limit to how far you can live from work, even when a dense motorway network has been developed. Growth cannot continue for ever. A stagnation in the growth of car travel is actually a sign of prosperity, not of some over-hyped "peak oil crisis".
VMT appears to be peaking
"WASHINGTON (Reuters Mar 26, 2008 ) - As gasoline prices broke records in 2007, Americans cut back on their driving for the first time in more than 20 years, according to the U.S. Federal Highway Administration."
This does not come as an unexpected surprise. The government figures show an almost undetectable growth in 2006 over 2005. In fact the VMT graph has been pretty flat since 2004. 2005/2006 may very well prove to be the years of peak US VMT. Here is a graph thas shows this pretty clearly:
monthly us vmt chart
In answer to Mr. Kirsh: How would you know where I may or may not have put my money in response to this situation? Other than the obvious fact that I have given $200 to emphasize my belief in what I have predicted. Of course there are much more important ways to prepare yourself emotionally and materially for the consequences of peak oil than to attempt to enrich yourself on the misery of others. Perhaps you might consider learning what they are.
Use of cars is inelastic. . .
even more so, I suspect, than the demand for oil. The suburbanization of the United States shows no signs of slowing down, nor are most people moving back to small towns where they might not have to drive so far. Most people don't have the option to drive fewer miles to work or the grocery store. As long as the population is going up, so will VMT.
Business Week: US road traffic falling
For 20 years now, workers in Palm Beach County, Fla., have been counting cars with sensors at strategic points along the county's 4,000 miles of roads. And as sure as the tide flows in the nearby Atlantic, nearly every year traffic volume has climbed at least 2%. But in 2007 there was a slight decline in the number of vehicles on the roads. And this year, traffic is down 7.5% through March. "We're seeing a very significant change," says county engineer George Webb. "We're having a good time speculating why."
MORE
More evidence VMT is peaking
"February(2008) was the fourth consecutive month in which miles driven in the USA fell compared to the same month of the previous year, an analysis of Federal Highway Administration data shows." USA TODAY ARTICLE
only US VMT stagnating
Daniel,
my understanding is that global VMT are rising rapidly. That's why i believe your assumptions are wrong and we are only seeing weaker US economy (increased global competition, and especially weak dollar due high costs of so called "war on teror").
The 12 month VMT decline has been astonishing
In order for Mr. Raphael to prevail, this trend would have to sharply reverse in a way that would be even more astonishing.
Before you vote, have a look at August 2008 Traffic Volume Trends and imagine that curve extrapolated to 2010.
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