"The People's Republic of China will successfuly place a living human on the surface of Mars before any other nation."

When will China have a bigger program than NASA?

China already has sufficient technology to place a living astronaut (or taikonaut) on the surface of Mars. It would take at least . . . maybe twelve years, I guess, with a massive, frantic effort . . . and it would require a tremendous amount of money.

The nation that will be the first to place a human explorer on Mars will be the nation that wants it the most. Obviously, that pool is taken from the handful of nations that could do it in less than, say, 25 years. If none of the front-runners do it in that time, all bets, as they say, are off. Japan could put a human on Mars within 25 years if they wanted to badly enough.

Personally, I feel that space-exploration dollars are generally best-spent on research. All too often we do the equivalent of building the Santa Maria out of gold and setting it out into the Atlantic, when the same money could have given us the QE2 ten years later. Better to wait and then go in style.

The People's Republic of China won't be around when the first human sets his or her foot on Mars.

By saying "successfuly place a living human on the surface of Mars", are you including "planning to return the living Human to Earth?", "Actually returning the living Human to Earth?", or "It does not matter if the living human stays living <1sec after touchdown?"

Getting there alive is 33% of the problem, living long enough and getting BACK is the REAL issue.

I'm pretty sure China's going to place a human on the moon before the end of 2010. Based on the story I read the other day, they're spacewalking this year, and they'll be docking two spacecraft in orbit in 2009. It took NASA three years from the first docking to the moon landing, and China has rapidly accelerated their space milestones with the benefit of hindsight (and former Soviet space technology and knowledge). They'll surprise everybody with a moon landing in the next couple of years.

Question is--will the moon landing spark another space race? This time to Mars? If so, I think an international coalition mission will beat the Chinese to the red planet. However, if the major space powers ignore China's moon landing and a space race does not result, China could very well be the first nation to land humans on Mars and return them safely to the earth. I also believe if that happens, the mission will be a variant of Robert Zubrin's "Mars Direct" mission or NASA/Zubrin's joint "Mars Semi-Direct" mission.

If China put someone on Mars, they'd use an identical twin #1, and maroon him, faking his return with twin #2.

China is the world's 2nd economy & even in this recession is growing at 8%. Unless somebody else makes it by 2025 they will have the biggest economy & must be front runner. Looking at NASA it seems unlikely they will do anything much before them.

Virgin Galactic or Space Adventures might do it first but they aren't nations.

It's a matter of will based on available capital and population morale. China has a surplus of both. It's nearest competitor, India, has too many internal social problems and external political problems to concentrate on such a goal. The United States shall busy itself coping with social disruption based on its economic decline and disassociation of classes. To accomplish this, the US will sell it's present and future to China, giving China the raw tech resources to accomplish the Mars mission.

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