Bet 223

Duration 10 years (02005-02015)

“By 2015, standardized tests for high school students in every state of the United States will directly evaluate students' understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside the scientific community.”

PREDICTOR
Kathleen A Hansen

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Hansen's Argument

Currently, many American elementary and high schools do not require children to demonstrate an understanding of the differences between scientific laws, scientific theories and the kinds of things often called theories outside the scientific community.

As a result, many adult Americans very understandably mistake scientific theories for unsubstantiated notions. In particular, proponents of the intelligent design movement lean heavily on such confusion to suggest that the theory of evolution is controversial among scientists or that it has little basis in evidence. (In reality, the evidence in favor of evolution is overwhelming, so the scientific community has accepted the theory of evolution by general consensus.)

The topic of evolution in school science curricula is currently under debate in many states. My prediction focuses on a simpler issue: the definitions of scientific laws and scientific theories. I am proposing that in ten years every American state will have decided that it is a good idea to teach children these basic terms.

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