Bet 246

Duration 4 years (02006-02010)

“The world will not reach 'Peak Oil' by 2010.

I have invited Jeremy Leggett, a champion of the peak oil concept and author of "Half gone: oil, gas, hot air and the global energy crisis", to bet against this prediction.” Detailed Terms »

PREDICTOR
Clive D Bates

CHALLENGER
TBA

Bates's Argument

Proven reserves stand at 42 years (economically extractable at current prices and current rates of production) and have been at this level for about two decades. There is some room for doubt about the validity of reserves estimates, but it isn't enough to change the validity of this prediction. Economic growth generally and especially in India and China will continue to outpace improvements in energy or oil intensity. If there is a tightening of supply, prices will rise and more of the known resources will become economic reserves. Measures from the Kyoto Protocol will not slow the growth of oil to initiate a peak over this period.

Verification: the failure to peak can be determined as early as 2011 if oil production rises in that year to above previous levels. A real peak must be differentiated from a temporary dip (a false peak in oil production was seen in 1979 and it took until 1994 for this peak to be passed) A true is potentially unverifiable as it may, theoretically be passed at any time in the future. I suggest that if a peak is achieved in or before 2010 and it is still a peak by 2020, I make a payment. However, in this event the winner would repay me if the peak is subsequently passed after 2020. IEA energy statistics, or equivalent available at the time, would be the source.

Bates was challenged to a bet!

Clive D Bates is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.


Detailed Terms

The failure to peak can be determined as early as the publication date of statistics for 2011, if oil production rises in that year to above previous levels. A real peak must be differentiated from a temporary dip (a false peak in oil production was seen in 1979 and it took until 1994 for this peak to be passed) A true peak is potentially unverifiable as it may, theoretically be passed at any time in the future. We have a greed that if a peak is achieved in or before 2010 and it is still a peak by 2020, Clive Bates will make the payment. However, if the peak is subsequently passed after 2020, Jeremy Leggett agrees to repay. IEA energy statistics, (Key World Energy Statistics) or equivalent available at the time, would be the source and the definition of "oil" would be be as used in The IEA statistics.



As a side bet outside the scope of the Long Bets facility, Clive Bates has offered Jeremy Leggett odds of 3:1, meaning he will pay $4500 should Dr. Leggett be proved correct.