Prediction 246
Duration 4 years (02006-02010)
Predictor
Clive D. Bates
Challenger
TBA
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Proven reserves stand at 42 years (economically extractable at current prices and current rates of production) and have been at this level for about two decades. There is some room for doubt about the validity of reserves estimates, but it isn't enough to change the validity of this prediction. Economic growth generally and especially in India and China will continue to outpace improvements in energy or oil intensity. If there is a tightening of supply, prices will rise and more of the known resources will become economic reserves. Measures from the Kyoto Protocol will not slow the growth of oil to initiate a peak over this period.
Verification: the failure to peak can be determined as early as 2011 if oil production rises in that year to above previous levels. A real peak must be differentiated from a temporary dip (a false peak in oil production was seen in 1979 and it took until 1994 for this peak to be passed) A true is potentially unverifiable as it may, theoretically be passed at any time in the future. I suggest that if a peak is achieved in or before 2010 and it is still a peak by 2020, I make a payment. However, in this event the winner would repay me if the peak is subsequently passed after 2020. IEA energy statistics, or equivalent available at the time, would be the source.
Clive D. Bates is negotiating the terms of a bet about this prediction. It will soon be added to Bets on the Record.
Yeah you notice how production decreases as these imaginary reserves increase? They're fake. Most experts say peak lies in between 2005 and 2010, I'm curious what source you're using to determine a definitive peak, as it seems to me you can't pin point it like that. Also- are you going by year? Day? Month? Second?
So does oil include non-conventional sources like tar sands and shale oil that become economically viable as oil prices go up? There are arguments put forth that it takes to much energy to extract these resources, but Robin M. Mills in his book, "The Myth of the Oil Crisis" has some reasonable arguments (and hard data) as to why the energy return on energy invested is viable for non-conventional sources.
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