Prediction 252

Duration ? years (02006-?)

“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.”

Predictor
Baris Karadogan

Challenger
TBA

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Karadogan’s Argument

The Internet, and online dating in particular, will bring a great deal of transparancy and scale to humans' ability to find a mate. Today we pick our spouses from a small pool of candidates. Tomorrow, the Internet will put millions of candidates right at our fingertips, and we'll know a ton of information about each.

This kind of scale and transparency will make it much clearer who the best men are. There will be far less risk is picking the right mate. Therefore the "best" men will be picked by the "best" women quickly.

The woman in the middle or below in this ranking will face the following choice. Either they pick a mediocre man and get his help raising kids, or get the best man, but not get any of his help raising the kids. Both examples are found in nature.

There will be a cutoff point after which the women will opt for the latter strategy, in a way, voluntarily joining a man's harem. They will approach men and ask them to give/sell them their sperm. The men will happily do so, especially if there is a financial benefit, and no requirement to help raise the child.

As a result, whoever the society deems to be the "best" man will effectively have hundreds of children.

For a more detailed discussion visit:
http://baris.typepad.com/venture_capitalist/2006/03/the_big_web_20_.html

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Really?

I am kind of surprised that no one has commented yet, but then I'm not. I don't have much to say, but how do we know that this hasn't already happened? People these days are careless. I won't mention any names or groups, but you know how they are. It could have happened already, then maybe it hasn't. If anyone was to bet against you, how would you be able to find the proof? Either I am mistaking your bet as in "Someone in the US has fathered over 150 children" as in they "knocked up" 150 different women, or...?

Old fashioned way

Someone will do this without necessity of Internet or artificial reproduction.

collapse of the sperm banks

I bet that american exists today. He may quite likely be French as France is the biggest supporter of high birth rate in the western world.

If i got it correct, the argument is based on the assumption that the female may select his mate based on the quality of his genes(not the financial strength) which is the fundamental of mammal coupling. In my view, this is already happening via sperm banks. There are plenty of studs trying to finance their education in sperm donation ($1K per donation). Assuming that the education lasts about 4 years i believe that there is plenty of opportunity to be the father of 150, even today. I bet that there will be more than 1000 americans w/ 150 kids thanks to the alternative channel of sperm sale. This will of course put a lotta pressure on the sperm banks unless they start using online dating sites to promote their sperm!

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