Prediction 26

Duration 10 years (02002-02012)

“By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.”

Predictor
Bob Rosenberg

Challenger
TBA

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Rosenberg’s Argument

Presently, there are 13 root servers on the internet. Ten of them are in the United States of America. Continued Globalization will require additional root servers to be spread around the planet.

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Bet 26

Posted by Long Bets Admin on Apr 25, 02002 at 04:31AM

By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.

Link to bet page

Posted by Catherine M. Bacon on Apr 25, 02002 at 07:28PM

http://www.longbets.org/bet/26

I think...

Posted by Charles S. Ricardo on Jun 01, 02002 at 04:04PM

Nobody will bet against Bob.

Number of root servers

Posted by eric johnson on Jun 02, 02002 at 06:06AM

There are more root servers than that. You are only counting the legacy ICANN/NSI namespace.

Why not include the other name spaces out there with their root servers as well?

No Shit Sherlock

Posted by Jonathan B. Sheppard on Jun 08, 02002 at 09:53AM

Please, the radiation of servers, connectivity, and the new LSat thats being launched over asia.
Fact 1> Hardware is being produced elsewhere.
Fact 2> Software is being reproduced elsewhere.
Fact 3> the enviro-luddite homogeny of the sixties is in control of our future.
Maybe Al Gore Invented the internet, maybe monkey's can code cobol.

Given the numbers in the main bet test.

Posted by Paul Blay on Jun 08, 02002 at 06:27PM

It would appear that, at a minimum, the 'yes' result for this bet needs an additional 8 root servers to be required by 2012.

Is there any information on how the number of servers has changed over prior years?

Well, it happened in 2004

Posted by Andrew Maltsev on Jan 29, 02004 at 02:54AM

Was reading slashdot and thought I've seen something here on that topic. Here you go:

"DNS Root Servers Outside US Surpass Those Inside"

http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/01/29/0058223

Predictor declares victory

Posted by Stewart Brand on Jan 30, 02004 at 01:32AM

And 8 years early, too. This may be the first prediction on Long Bets to be proved right or wrong. Nice that it appears to be a right one.

Bob Rosenberg wrote me this:


Well, someone saved money by refraining from betting me (Long Bets # 26
as I recall). Alls the pity.

Best wishes,
--
Bob Rosenberg


New Instance of DNS Root Server Makes Internet History
Amsterdam, 27 January 2004

For the first time in Internet history the number of instances of DNS
root servers outside the United States has overtaken the number within.
The balance was tipped by the recent launch in Frankfurt of an anycast
instance of the RIPE NCC operated K-root server (http://k.root-
servers.org).

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