Bet 26
By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.
Prediction 26
Duration 11 years (02002-02012)
Predictor
Bob Rosenberg
Challenger
TBA
Add your voice to a conversation with the bettors:
Bookmark this bet, and share it with friends:
Presently, there are 13 root servers on the internet. Ten of them are in the United States of America. Continued Globalization will require additional root servers to be spread around the planet.
Sign in to challenge Bob Rosenberg to a bet on this prediction!
By the end of 2012, more than 50% of the root servers on the internet will be located outside the United States.
There are more root servers than that. You are only counting the legacy ICANN/NSI namespace.
Why not include the other name spaces out there with their root servers as well?
Please, the radiation of servers, connectivity, and the new LSat thats being launched over asia.
Fact 1> Hardware is being produced elsewhere.
Fact 2> Software is being reproduced elsewhere.
Fact 3> the enviro-luddite homogeny of the sixties is in control of our future.
Maybe Al Gore Invented the internet, maybe monkey's can code cobol.
It would appear that, at a minimum, the 'yes' result for this bet needs an additional 8 root servers to be required by 2012.
Is there any information on how the number of servers has changed over prior years?
Was reading slashdot and thought I've seen something here on that topic. Here you go:
"DNS Root Servers Outside US Surpass Those Inside"
http://slashdot.org/article.pl?sid=04/01/29/0058223
And 8 years early, too. This may be the first prediction on Long Bets to be proved right or wrong. Nice that it appears to be a right one.
Bob Rosenberg wrote me this:
Well, someone saved money by refraining from betting me (Long Bets # 26
as I recall). Alls the pity.
Best wishes,
--
Bob Rosenberg
New Instance of DNS Root Server Makes Internet History
Amsterdam, 27 January 2004
For the first time in Internet history the number of instances of DNS
root servers outside the United States has overtaken the number within.
The balance was tipped by the recent launch in Frankfurt of an anycast
instance of the RIPE NCC operated K-root server (http://k.root-
servers.org).
AOL has already decided to follow the cash waiting for them on the Indian Subcontinent as many millions of Internet-starved Indian citizens beckon with rupees burning holes in their pockets. I had the word from an AOL employee that the official move in location to India is pending. And accommodating this explosion in Internet presence alone will probably necessitate an immense growth in non-US servers.
Does anyone know how many servers there are in China already? I am confident that by the time India Online gets well and truly underway that the prediction will be affirmed.
Due to SPAM problems we have disabled commenting on Long Bets until we can institute automated filtering. Sorry for the inconvenience.
