Prediction 283

Duration 93 years (02007-02100)

“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.”

Predictor
John Tierney

Challenger
TBA

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Tierney’s Argument

In his 2003 book, "Our Final Hour," Martin Rees writes: "I think the odds are no better than fifty-fifty that our present civilisation on Earth will survive to the end of the present century."

Dr. Rees is an eminent cosmologist, president of the Royal Society, and the astronomer royal of Britain -- but also, I think, a short-sighted prophet. He correctly notes that humanity will face unprecedented risks this century, but we will also have unprecedented tools to deal with them.

I believe the best way to predict the future is to look at past trends -- the longest trends possible. And my reading of history is that humans have a longstanding habit of surviving. As the late Julian Simon pointed out in his refutations of doomsayers, there is a long-term trend of humans facing news problems and not just overcoming them but emerging better-off as a result. Our species now has more members living longer than ever before. It's always possible this trend will end abruptly, but I think the odds are against it.

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Posted by Neil W. Craig on Mar 07, 02009 at 05:48AM PST

If somebody takes you on & wins how do they collect?

"our civilization" is not unambiguous

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Posted by Incog Nito on May 30, 02009 at 09:13AM PDT

This is just silly. There is no way we'll last until 2100. The is a whole blog dedicated to the subject here:

http://whenistheworldgoingtoend.blogspot.com/

FutureTimeline.net

Posted by William J. Fox on Jun 01, 02009 at 07:40AM PDT

Yes, I believe the human race will survive - but there will be major conflicts related to climate change, peak oil and depleted resources.

By the way, my personal website includes a poll on this very subject (link in both the title of this post, and my profile). So if you're interested in science and humanity's future then please check it out.

While Canada and Scandinavia are probably safe. . .

Posted by Jason W. Galbraith on Jun 03, 02009 at 03:54PM PDT

it is possible that regions of the earth with high populations and little to no surface water could collapse into chaos, as depicted in last night's ABC TV show, "Earth 2100." So while humanity will survive, not all of the world as we know it probably will.

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