Prediction 287

Duration 8 years (02007-02015)

“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.”

Predictor
Russell A. Mitchell

Challenger
TBA

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Mitchell’s Argument

TThe spectre of Shia Islam dominating the middle east will come crashing to a halt when organic regime change occurs in Iran. The Iranian people by and large are not interested in Shia Empire -- if anything, their interest is in factors the west finds highly congenial, and the political class in the "upper middle" stands to greatly benefit from the economic benefits of liberalizing Iranian politics.

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Bet 287

Russell A. Mitchell predicts: "Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east."

This is impossible

If u have any Ideea of religion and social movements u will see that a group of humans doesn't change over night it's ideeas that holds the group toghether, and in historical terms two generations is just a night. And u have to consider the antourage, always.

Re: This is impossible

This is precisely the data upon which I'm basing said prediction: the majority of Iranians have little or nothing to do with the mullahcracy and kleptocracy running the state. They want to go skiing, leap over fires, and otherwise avoid anything that has to do with a basij reincarnation of Zahak Mardush.

If further evidence points to the contrary, I would, of course, have to modify that stance... but in the short term, your idea plus facts on the ground amongst the actual population provides significant grounds for optimism.

As all conscious persons should be aware. . .

we are now only days away from attacking Iran, which will permanently alienate the pro-Western elements Russell refers to in his prediction. I regret I no longer have the $400 I offered to bet against this proposition earlier.

Totally Agree

I agree it will happen eventually. Im an iranian myself & am fully aware of how majority of iranians think & what is their ideas both inside iran & outside iran. There wont be any attack on iran, not because I wish it doesnt happen NO; because US government knows it is cheaper & less costy (also in term of soldiers life loss) to support the iranian people's movement. An example & prove of such strategy is quadrupling VOA's persian speaking service & allocating $75 Million to democracy movement in iran (expect this number to increase in coming years!). They know that having a democracy iran with good economics is more profitable for them than drawing their oils indirectly! With decreasing number of American fans around the world mainly in developed countries, iranian PEOPLE still admire America, American people & American system.

I am a successful FOREX & Stock trader & have been trading since I was 18 which shows I wont bet on something without knowing for sure it will happen, therefore I am willing to bet $200 with anyone who disagrees with this.

Re: Bet 287

I agree, even if the underlying assumption is somewhat wrong, it's not Shia Islam dominating the middle east.
The basic concept of the Iranian revolution was to build a democratic, Islamic society. Even though, due to these conflicting goals this did not work out very well in the first place (as of western standards) it is not a very fundamentalist idea. Since its approach is more democratic than some other middle east countries' it will eventually be able to adapt to changing wishes of its people and provide an ever increasing level of freedom. Freedom generally tends to stabilize a regime and region.

impossible !

this is 100% impossible and will never happen, if you look at the way the Iranian regime is controlling the country then you'd know. the Iranian majority are devout followers of the Shiaa sect, and Iranians who are calling for change are a minority compared to the majority who are extreme shiaas, if you follow the iranian pilgrimage news and media in the Islamic months of muharram and sufar which include Ashura day and see what they do and the weird rituals by the millions of people there, then you will be assured that nothing will change Iran !
Iranians will stay forever followers to the Arab religion and culture and time will prove this right.
and Iranian's hate to the west in infinite.
I studied international politics and also history, i speak English, Spanish, Hebrew, Arabic, farsi.
thanks

I withdraw my challenge.

The only ways the Iranian democracy movement could be stopped is if 1), the West launches a provocation such as bombing of nuclear sites, or 2) and more likely, the regime itself could launch "false flag" attacks on a nationwide scale. 1) would lead ultimately to the end of civilization, but it is possible Netanyahu will try it anyway.

Much Spam

Stopped by. Mr. Vassar, I'm in-between jobs at the moment, but as soon as I can plunk the $200, you're on.

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