Correct prediction wrong time scale
Prediction 354
Duration 3 years (02008-02011)
Predictor
Martin G. Tobias
Challenger
TBA
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Diesel is proven technology. With the introduction of ULSD in 2007 now the US can fuel the advanced clean diesels that are already made in Europe. Diesels get 30% better mileage than the same internal combustion engine and last longer. The uplift for diesel is less than the uplift for hybrid drive train. No battery replacement issues. Diesels will kick hybrids ass.
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The truth is that hybrids will most likely be running dirtier than diesel engines in a few years because they require fossil fuels to run but diesel engines are able to run off of bio-diesel which burns extremely clean.
HYBRID SALES & MARKET SHARE
2000: 9,350 � 0.1%
2001: 19,177 � 0.1%
2002: 37,993 � 0.2%
2003: 47,524 � 0.3%
2004: 85,525 � 0.5%
2005: 206,858 � 1.2%
2006: 254,143 � 1.5%
2007: 351,000 � 2.2%
2008: 382,000 � 2.4%
2009: 614,000 � 3.8%
2010: 772,000 � 4.7%
2011: 938,000 � 5.6%
2012: 1,007,000 � 6%
2007 figures are preliminary; 2008 and beyond are projections.
Source: J.D. Power and Associates
This is not likely to happen simply because of the time it takes to design a new line of diesel vehicles/engines and modify the existing manufacturing plants to begin producing these new vehicles. This factor alone makes 2010 a hard date to hit. This would also cause a spike in diesel fuel demand, requiring refineries to increase production of diesel. With our current economic state, it is also not likely that the majority of consumers will be making new car purchases in 2010, nor would they purchase the most likely higher-priced new line of diesels if they were to make a purchase.
Americans are just plain racist against diesels and the same process that cures actual racism in society (racists dying of old age) is what it's going to take to get Americans down with some diesel lovin'. besides you have the mindset that all hybrids are warmfuzzy hondas and priuses that love the earth. Here's a better prediction GM will design market and sell a hybrid vehicle that gets no better than 5% more mileage than it's non hybrid counterpart.
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