Long Bets - In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.

Correct prediction wrong time scale

Posted by Jack Scherer on Jul 08, 02008 at 07:19PM

You are very right!!!

Posted by Grant F. Peltier on Aug 06, 02008 at 10:32PM

The truth is that hybrids will most likely be running dirtier than diesel engines in a few years because they require fossil fuels to run but diesel engines are able to run off of bio-diesel which burns extremely clean.

Hybrids sold these days

Posted by Chris D. Waggoner on Sep 10, 02008 at 10:01AM

HYBRID SALES & MARKET SHARE
2000: 9,350 �? 0.1%
2001: 19,177 �? 0.1%
2002: 37,993 �? 0.2%
2003: 47,524 �? 0.3%
2004: 85,525 �? 0.5%
2005: 206,858 �? 1.2%
2006: 254,143 �? 1.5%
2007: 351,000 �? 2.2%
2008: 382,000 �? 2.4%
2009: 614,000 �? 3.8%
2010: 772,000 �? 4.7%
2011: 938,000 �? 5.6%
2012: 1,007,000 �? 6%

2007 figures are preliminary; 2008 and beyond are projections.
Source: J.D. Power and Associates

Probably not.

Posted by William J. Crane on Dec 03, 02008 at 06:40AM

This is not likely to happen simply because of the time it takes to design a new line of diesel vehicles/engines and modify the existing manufacturing plants to begin producing these new vehicles. This factor alone makes 2010 a hard date to hit. This would also cause a spike in diesel fuel demand, requiring refineries to increase production of diesel. With our current economic state, it is also not likely that the majority of consumers will be making new car purchases in 2010, nor would they purchase the most likely higher-priced new line of diesels if they were to make a purchase.

Posted by Tom Bill on Apr 05, 02009 at 06:04PM

You are stating a very possible fact! The population will surely reach its peak. Time will come that the human race will invade the whole lands in the earth and over population seems the main concern of everybody. This would be the hardest time in the near future. Now we are in the great depression with regards to economy. What would be the worse here is if we exceed to the limit and cannot sustain the needs of all the people in the earth. Though the government is working on to give benefits to unemployed workers, having job is better way to cope up with this distress. It is better to find way elsewhere to avoid wasting time. Not only with college education would be the problem. Greater than education is seeking for a job, lots of layoff and financial insufficiency is on bedroom furniture our way. Perhaps they'd like some faxless payday loans with that Frappalicious beverage.

nfw

Posted by David w. Creede on May 22, 02009 at 09:56PM

Americans are just plain racist against diesels and the same process that cures actual racism in society (racists dying of old age) is what it's going to take to get Americans down with some diesel lovin'. besides you have the mindset that all hybrids are warmfuzzy hondas and priuses that love the earth. Here's a better prediction GM will design market and sell a hybrid vehicle that gets no better than 5% more mileage than it's non hybrid counterpart.