Bet 371

Duration 22 years (02008-02030)

“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called "Hello, world!", will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.”

PREDICTOR
Wayne B Hayes

CHALLENGER
Unchallenged

Hayes's Argument

"When I was young...", even complex executables would fit into 64k. I know folks just a bit older than me who would claim that 64k is HUGE and they could fit wonders into a 4k executable file. Or 1k. Or even 256 bytes of RAM. Today (2008), even simple executables are balooning in size thanks to tons of libraries being linked in that are probably not needed, or due to GUI interfaces that are much more complex than old command-line stand-bys.

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