I am interested in what you said about the increasing social acceptance of gambling. Despite the fact that gambling has a long history, it's still a recreational pastime with a stigma. Online gambling is becoming more acceptable with more and more countries legalising and regulating the industry. But on a social level, it's still not the done thing to inform your mother-in-law that you plan to spend the evening glued to your favourite poker site acquiring the funds for your forthcoming trip to Mauritius.

We are getting there though. Only recently I met a few young men who, in response to the inevitable question: "so.... what do you do?" quite unashamedly revealed that they are in fact 'professional poker players'. So 2040 is a long way off for sure. But isn't the real question - what will come first - a casino on the moon or swopping blackjack tips with the in-laws?

How exactly would a casino on the moon work? Surely the lack of gravity would render dice and card games impossible?

Siding with the prediction, forecasting a gambling does become more socially accepted, it still has to stand the test of gravity indeed. Poker chip tricks can really be exciting, though.

This prediction seems to me nothing more than a cheap attention getting gimmick by an online casino site.

just came back from macaw couple of days ago and run into your prediction...lol, actually it is possible that some millionaire will buy a piece of land on the moon and build some sort of las Vegas style tourism over their...I think its possible, I mean humans have done sillier things before...

If there is any value in this prediction it is that by 2040 the full range of human activities will take place on the moon as illustrated by a casino.

Why not the world's oldest profession - prostitution in a brothel and in Amsterdam and some US states? Ask yourself why there is no brothel or casino in Antarctica.

Put that way reveals the triviality of the prediction and its debasing of Long Bets.

Long Bets seems willing to down grade itself in desperation to gain greater attendance. That is regrettable.

just Jack

Jack's comments are antiquated. No, they're just plain old. No one in his right mind can tie casinos to prostitution. Apples, oranges - they grow on different trees man!
If your imagination wants to go in such directions though, try placing a bet on Freddie Mac and IndyMac offering subprime mortgage loans for lunar-home developments. But no, that's too legit, whereas you're busy tying casinos with illegal activities.
Relax, man, and come to Vegas. You might actually have some fun!

While eventually we may see development on the moon, which may include a casino, in my opinion the 2040 timeline dramatically overestimates the rate of progress we will make, and is probably 100 years to early. 2140 might be more realistic.

The basic problem with economical and cost effective space travel will be a lack of energy. With oil prices currently at $134/bbl, the world is having enough trouble coming up with enough sustainable energy to allow 6.5bn people afford have a car, let alone flying people to space.

At the time of the initial moon landing in the 1960s, NASA engineers were absolutely convinced that by the year 2000 we would be seeing commercial flights back and forth from the moon on a regular basis. The reality is that in 50 years there has actually been relatively limited progress.

I would wager that by 2040 we will still be decades if not centuries away from regular commuting too and from the moon & a moon-casino.

Within 5-10 years, we'll have the ability to put people into sub-orbital space (~100 miles up) for a couple hundred thousand dollars each. It will be another 5-10 years after that before we can put people into low-Earth orbit (~250 miles). It will take considerably longer than that (probably 20 years) before we have a reliable and relatively cost-efficient method of putting people into geo-synchronous orbit (~22,500 miles).

After that, it may become possible to reliably and cost-effectively land people on the Moon, but it will be at least a decade after a permanent Lunar colony to the establishment of a casino. The residents there will have much higher priorities initially (power, food, water, waste, etc.).

I doubt that we will have much more than research facilities and labs on the moon by 2040 because mankind is very cautious and still fears space. i very highly doubt that by 2040 we will have developed the technology to erect a large casino structure on the moon with water, food, and electrical supply. Gravity is another issue.

there is like not enough air here and none on the moon might be a casino on the moon but with no body in it