Bet 39
Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.
Prediction 39
Duration 13 years (02002-02015)
Predictor
Jacob A. Walker
Challenger
TBA
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Despite the dominance of wireless network access, the compact disc offers an efficient format for selling music. While record labels will be unsuccessful in getting digital rights management technology in hardware that would render current CD players useless, they will continue to sell CDs - tangible products at retail stores for many years to come. A major format change may occur, but the dominance of compact disc players will require the discs to be sold well into 2015.
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Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.
DVDs have been out since 1997ish. In less than 5 years they dominated VHS. Within another 5, VHS will be all but extinct, other than home recordings
DVD Audio is coming soon. They're clearer than CD's (which is hard to imagine), and have much greater capcity. I think DVD Audio is going to catch on even quicker than DVD movies because DVD is already established, and the music market is (I'm guessing) larger than the movie market. Portable players may be problematic at first, but even so, the tracks can be ripped to MP3 or something else.
Additionaly, the rise of MP3 (or whatever comes after MP3) isn't going to stop any time soon. Storage for the players will continue to grow, they will become more power efficient (hopefully), and the devices will become less expensive and more main stream.
I think by 2015 the market will be dominated by DVD Audio (or a derivative) or non-disc portable digital.
There are several reasons I believe one will not be able to easily buy new music on a digital optical disk formatted in today's Red Book (16-bit / 44.1 kHz stereo 2 channel) format in the year 2015.
1. The four big record labels which control approximately 70 percent of all the music distribution in the USA, are trying to curb digital music piracy. It is my opinion that they are working hard to move their content to a media that protects their interest and is acceptable to their clients. The Red Book Format is now easily copied and little identification of the owner or duplicator is available on the copies. Producing more music in this format is bad for these companies over the long run.
2. From an Audio point of view, our current Red Book CD standard is also not “state-of-the-art” even today. New recording technology is 24-bit / 96 kHz and has 3, 5 or more channels. Not the 2 channels at 16-bit / 44.1 kHz format found on today’s mass produced Red Book formatted disks. With people buying 3 to 5 speakers with many new audio systems. I believe that the content providers and music purchasers will want to provide and buy a richer musical experience. These richer experiences are not being provided on our current Red Book only CD players.
3. I believe that the next likely format for audio disks will be the DVD-Audio disk. But the Super Audio CD may also win out. These disk formats have a larger capacity and can do what a CD only player can do but with a richer musical experience. These formats also provide copy protection and watermarking for content providers. As new DVD / DVD-Audio compatible players show up in computers and video devices there distribution volume will go up and their unit price will come down. Eventually, it will become hard to justify the production and purchase of a CD only player. In five to seven years this situation will lead to the fade in of DVD players where CD only players were once installed (cars, home audio equipment, mobile audio devices).
4. As old CD only players become obsolete say in 10 to 12 years. The default media produced for the mass market will move completely to the newer standards.
5. The vendors are strongly motivated to go this way for many reasons. Among them a move to a new digital audio format represents a large new sales opportunity for both hardware and content. And the content will be better protected. This will be something like the conversion from LPs to CDs or the move of software distribution from floppy disks to CD-ROMs. I believe in 11 to 13 years we will start to see new recordings being primarily made available in DVD-Audio format.
In 2015 I do believe that there will be new audio only disks available but just not ones formatted in a way which is compatible with an inexpensive Red Book only audio player of today. One may be able to go to a specialty or used audio store to buy an “old CD” in today’s Red Book format and you will be able to play those disks in your future DVD-Audio disk players. But, you are not likely to be able to go to a chain store of the future like Wal-Mart and find today’s Red Book 16-bit / 44.1 kHz stereo 2 channel audio CDs in 2015. What you will find in the store will be DVD-Audio disks or their replacement. You will not be able to use the mass produced music of 2015 in you Red Book only CD player of today. And therefore in 2015 you will not be able to play a newly produced mass distributed disk in a Red Book audio-only CD player you purchased in 2002. You will have to play it in your new DVD-Audio disk in your DVD player.
I think, that by 2050 comes around, all these optical devices will be ancient history our great great grandkids will be talking about "Grandpa, what was it like without solid state media?" First off, cd players are mechanical and are inefficient. Then there's the problem with CDs. Standard Audio CD = 75 mins of music give or take depending on capacity. CDs purchased from retail stores are not reusable. CDs in general are prone to annihilation. 1 good scratch can put a quick end to the life of your cd. Yes, there are scratch fix kits, but that is more $$$. Those nice little memory sticks and smart cards are a much better choice. Right now the only problem is, the technology is still fairly new, and most people haven't caught on to it. When people think of memory cards, it's usually for digital cameras or pdas. It's still fairly expensive too. Also, there are no companies that have players for SmartCard media. Sony does have it's nice little Memory Stick player, but that is one company, and not enough to drive down prices. All in all, solidstate memory media is a much better choice. RAMS, ROMS, either way, it's faster, bigger, and more efficient than your standard CD.
in my opinion it should be "New music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015"
To rule out of consideration the second hand market. Which I think will be considerable well after the demise of the CD as a primary music delivery medium.
You are correct - but just saying "New music CDs" is not quite enough. The phrase "sold regularly" is also a bit gray. If it said "comprised the majority of sales" I would have to say the he'd lose the bet.
Oh? I would have thought "New music CDs" = "Not second hand" clearly enough - particularly for a two line summary.
As to 'comprised the majority of sales' I don't think that is the opinion of the bettor. He does say "... the dominance of compact disc players" but, in context, that could be "... the (present) dominance ..."
The situation is probably similar to cassette tape players, that have been around a fair while since technically superior formats arrived and probably will be for a few years yet.
I agree that "sold regularly" is too fuzzy a term to use for this bet. I don't think that many would dispute that CDs have pretty much decimated the market for vinyl LPs since the mid-80s, but I can think of at least three music stores in my area where I could buy used records if I went looking for them.
How about ...
"At least five Wal-Marts will have at least two of the top ten entries in the Billboard 200 chart for July 2015 available for purchase in a CD-format compatible with 2002 players."
Will Wal-Marts still exist by 2015?
That may be a different bet :P
Bets that Wal-Marts will not exist in 2015 are available from your friendly neighborhood investment banker. Ask for a quote on a 13-year put.
What language would you substitute for "you will be able to buy them at Wal-Mart" in order to capture the essence, that neither technological advance, Digital Rights Management, nor the end of civilization as we know it will cause 2002-compatible CDs to become scarce in 2015?
I think the best way to phrase this bet would be to base it on a percentage of new music sales as reported by the RIAA/IFPI (or whoever may take their place between now and then).
Today the audio CD (Red Book 16 bit/44.1 K) is the dominant music distribution media. Whether at the store or on line, it is the default delivery. I believe the bet is whether the default media in 2015 will be Red Book compatible so today's 2 channel "Legacy" optical players can decode and play the program.
I believe that will not be possible as 2015 will see music distributed as part of a video file, no longer as a separate entity.
I think I agree with Thomas Brown. I think the format for the players may very well still accept the CD's of today, which will mean that except for antique collectors that the player of today won't be worth much, since it won't support newer formats.
The reason you can still get record players is two-fold, first there is a group of hard core audiophiles who believe it has better sound than cd (although from what I've read, it is actually a less acurate representation of the original sound that sounds fuzzy or warmer, and therefore more pleasing) and secondly, a record won't fit in a cd player. As they move up the frequency to blue lasers, double-sided, double-density, the transfer rates may become a problem for huge files. These probably won't be music files, but music files may follow along for the sake of simplicity, especially in the space cramped laptop niche.
I read an interesting article recently about the maximum spin speed of the cd. Unfortunately, I have no idea where I read it. The basic gist was that at a certain speed, cd's blow-up. The lab conducting the experiment tried wrapping the cd in kevlar wire to reinforce it, but this created enough drag so that they couldn't reach explosion speed with the motor they had on hand. The next step would be to impregnate the cd with a layer of kevlar to strengthen it, although you'd also have to reinforce the drive, so that a cd doesn't wabble out of control, flying off like a frisbee guiotine.
Multiple lasers reading simultaneously could help, but that adds to the expense (since these wouldn't be those cheap laser pointer lasers that got use), and it runs into space restrictions. You can only fit so many lasers on in position to read the disc. I imagine heat might also become a problem.
Until it is clarified whether _second hand_ CDs are included, or only _new_ CDs count.
When you buy a CD. what you are really buying is music. You just have to have some way of accessing it, that is what the CD is. I recently bought the new "album" by Eric Johnson. I downloaded it directly from his website onto my computer. I have the music, not a CD. I can still listen to it on my home stereo, or my ipod, and with a tiny transmiter I can listen to it in my car. I think if that if this form of sale becomes more popular, not only will we see the death of CD's but the death of major record labels. Has anyone seen the new Apple itunes music store? You can get just about any song you want for 99 cents or any album for $9.99. Since i got my mp3 player I havent played a single CD. And I already see no reason to ever buy another CD.
I brought well over a 100 vinyl records last year, (probably more than the number of CD's purchased). Records have a value to me, as aretefacts, that MP3 files don't.
Vinyl is undoubtedly a minority format but its kept alive by independent (and dance) labels, often because of its nature as an artefact - think coloured vinyl 7" singles in handmade packaging. If nothing else CD are likely to survive in a similar niche. If DRM for physical media is at all sucessful, or if big players switch to elctronic distribution then the space for that niche will be even bigger.
The makers of CD players need to periodically force consumers to buy new equipment plus the music and video industry makes money reselling consumers what they already have. First LP records were gone and now VHS tapes are being phased out. Black and white tv is compatible with color but who owns a black and white television ?
Black and white tv is compatible with color but who owns a black and white television ?
You've got that analogy back to front.
Who owns a television that receives black and white programmes ? In fact I'd say the chances are high that most people have, over the last year, watched B&W programmes / videos on their colour TV.
I think it's fair to say that while CD sales will still be very prominent in 2015, (more for the audiophile like me) I don't think it will be 'the' leading audio format.
In recent years we have seen a revolution in mobile communication technology. One trend that is very popular is the inclusion of many devices into one unit ie: phones with cameras, mp3 players etc. I think this trend will increase, and the public demand for ever smaller, all singing all dancing devices will push the music industry into new thinking regarding audio sales. Nobody likes to be left behind right? This is starting to happen with Apple's online music store and the ever smaller and popular iPod/Mp3 player format. Why have 100's of CD's when one player device and computer will do?
It's also worth noting that data compression and playback will get increasingly better over time, so a high quality mp3 file of now, will be compared to the cassette of yester-year. Such increases in technological advancements will mean that record companies will have to develop more control over how their data is presented to the public. This brings forward the issues of controlling piracy and copyright.
I believe that the delivery of music online will be the key to this.
I think companies like Apple and Microsoft will no longer be defined as operating system developers as they are now, but manufacturers of products that define your chosen life style. I think a universal OS will be developed that runs all systems allowing better control of nearly all data, including music formats. Imagine having a device at home that was your TV, DVD recorder, web browser and computer, in an all-in-one device? Simply go online, choose your song or album, download at full 24 or 32 bit quality in seconds, point your all in one phone camera and audio player at the TV - and done, your favourite artist delivered to your doorstep - no rain, no cracked CD cases, no scratches, no hassle.
As the proud owner of 400 albums on audio cassette and a good 300 on LP vinyl, I feel comfortable predicting that you'll still be able to buy a stereo player with a CD-compatible drive on it (but it may be a DVD player with a built-in color screen) 15 years from now.
However, the best-selling stereos 15 years from now will be totally solid-state, with the only moving part being the cooling fan. And I'm going to wait until then rather than try to replace all my cassette and vinyl albums with CDs. If I could conveniently scan every book in my library on hard drives or 9 Gb DVD-ROMs, I'd do that, too.
Right now, multi-format optical drives simply read the header information on the disk to determine which sort of disk they're dealing with, then use the appropriate laser and disk speed (thus preventing any explosions posited by another poster in this discussion).
Since in optical drives lasers are LEDs and thus very small, building an optical drive with multiple lasers or laser diodes which can radiate at more than one frequency should not be a insurmountable problem. Multi-format drives exist today - in fact, most recently-made DVD players are backward-compatible with CDs.
However, as I stated in a previous post, I think that optical technology is not long for the stereo world.
Solid-state storage of music on memory chips is technically better (or will be very soon as compression technology improves - as it will) and will be cheaper as well. We will simply be able to store all of our music on something like an iPod, but which has much greater capacity and musical fidelity.
Reflect on the fact that even now, a leading genetics researcher uses his iPod to carry the code for the entire human genome around with him. The migration of music away from physical storage media totally can't be far behind.
I believe that another physical format will be in use by that time, perhaps like the mini-disc, however CDs will still be sold as they will not be fully phased out by that time. As far as digital storage--it's nice, but remember hard drives crash. CDs have a shelf life of up to 75 years, or around that time if they are quality discs. Only problem is CDs scratch, obviously they are still rudimentary. We will transfer to a scratchless format by that time.
This bet hinges on whatever "regular" means. Would you be willing to expand upon what you are suggesting?
For example, if by regular you mean some percentage of dollars spent on recorded music will be spent on the purchase of CDs, then we may be able to put together a bet.
Also. Are you including only those CDs sold with music on them, or also "blank" CDs, sold in music stores.
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