Prediction 69
Duration 38 years (02002-02040)
Predictor
Diogo O. Beltran
Challenger
TBA
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The thicker the fire walls of the future become, harder will be the possibility for an invasion. Consequently destructive systems will be broken up into very small inoffensive data, almost undetectable. This data will penetrate fire walls much easier and only then fuse together and start running like a virus. Due to the nature of world wide universal programming, hackers all over the world will program "virus patches" that will be compatible with other virus. The possibility for mutation due to high amount of hackers making data will make viruses into uncontrollable "data gatherers", a small cybernetic AI beast.
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By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engines (Systems) diffused through out the Internet.
The 'bet details' make no mention of search engines.
I think the bettor missed a bet (so to speak). A simpler bet along the same lines would "There will be successful computer virii with AI by 2040". AFAIK, the nearest we have at present are polymorphic virii that 'reshuffle' their code in an attempt to slip past anti-virus programs.
What is being pointed out in this bet is not only the apparition of AI, but also the organization of virii and how it will happen. Cant simplify it to much. Lots of things are going to happen. Not just one thing.
"What is being pointed out in this bet is not only the apparition of AI, but also the organization of virii and how it will happen."
Exactly, the _more_ precise you are on the details, the greater the likelyhood that they will not be met. "AI in viruses" is sufficiently capable of disbelief that to burden the bet with 'how' and 'why' appears to be 'over egging the pud'.
I think you would have been better off to, say, split into two bets of half the amount each.
I am not worried on how "precise" I am because I am convinced that it will happen with this precsion. That is exackly why I betted this large amount. If the bet is more likely not to be met, this gives more reasons for people to bet against me. That is exackly what I want.
How are you defining 'AI' in this context? It's been misused for everything from Expert Systems to Human+ Intelligence in machine form.
Im using the only definition I know: AI (pronounced AYE-EYE) or artificial intelligence is the simulation of human intelligence processes by machines, especially computer systems. These processes include learning (the acquisition of information and rules for using the information), reasoning (using the rules to reach approximate or definite conclusions), and self-correction.
Antivirus firm Kaspersky Labs warns today the Duload worm is spreading across the KaZaA file-exchange network. One modification of the worm also downloads from the Net several Trojan programs designed to establish the unauthorised remote management of victim computers.
10000$ is a huge bet - what does it mean that you are 'staff'?
As for the bet, it seems to me to be a pure nonsense. Do you believe that in 30-40 years Internet will look like it does today? Do you think Bill Gates and Windows with all the little bugs will be still around? Do you think there will be one standard PC operating system, or that there will be PC's at all?
To have viruses you have to have a stable and unchanging enviroment, like the one that is around today, with a total dominance of Windows operating system, flawed as it is. For them to change, mutate, evolve, become inteligent etc. you need to keep a lot of loopholes, which came about because of the rapid development of the software. Are you suggesting that they would have a life of their own, independent of the programmers? Well, it is not very hard to make environment hostile to such kind of creatures, and it is very hard for them to adapt if you have the control of the software you run. Internet containing plain data (as opposed to downloads of software) is easily (in principle) made benign. It all sounds like a pretty cheap and shallow science fiction.
Whether or not a single (type) of software will have 'total dominance' in 2040 is worthy of a bet in itself. It's by no means certain we won't be using "Windows 2040" by that point.
I also think that in saying "Internet containing plain data (as opposed to downloads of software) is easily (in principle) made benign." you are completely ignoring the past and present trends in the Internet. The trend has always been _from_ plain data / file downloads and _towards_ fancy interaction and gimicks.
The 'elimination of bugs' may be provably unfeasible. [There's some information theory on this around somewhere].
Lastly for global connectivity to exist there has to be similarity of environment and / or agreed interface standards etc. If 'nice' programmers can work across it, so can the 'nasty' ones.
"Do you believe that in 30-40 years Internet will look like it does today?"
NO. Its gonna look much worse.
"Do you think Bill Gates and Windows with all the little bugs will be still around?"
NO. Bill will be like 90 years old. THere will be more complex programs, with more complex bugs around.
"Do you think there will be one standard PC operating system, or that there will be PC's at all?"
PC will still exist. Who cares about there operating system.
"Are you suggesting that they would have a life of their own, independent of the programmers?"
Can you read?
"It all sounds like a pretty cheap and shallow science fiction."
Thats the whole point of the bet. That way people "like you actually bet against me.
Just remember one thing: Its called WorldWideWeb and not
United States Web. In the US you might get some organization in stopping viral crimes. But the rest of the world is certainly gonna have alot of problems.
Obviously, the internet will look vastly different in this time frame. Webpages will have all sorts of neat features and buttons to click linking us to virtually anything our heart desires. Implanted chips like VR will be used for maximum intensity of each experience.
I am no expert on AI or virii but did see this fascinating program on TV on how computer programs can be set to evolve into new programs and keep on evolving based on a selection criterion. Only the "successful" programs will be allowed to evolve. There is no AI per se here but only randomness following the theory of natural selection (only here virii which meet certain criteria will be selected). Any view on this subject area? My point being that you don't need "intelligence" to evolve into a new system or to adapt to a new environment as was the case with the first bacterium in the promodial soup. One could hardly call them intelligent but they did evolve into a million different species which are infinitely adaptable. Of course this is only a laymans view but I would be interested to hear more from the programmer and biologists out there.
By 2040, i agree it may be possible for computer viruses to fuse together and mutate themselves into other forms...but although possible, this will not happen. The reason, simple economics. The viruses will realize that its more economical to "offshore" their fusing and mutations to developing countries then to do it themselves. Other viruses may protest at having their wages cut and their upper-middle class lifestyles given away to other countries, but in the end the economics will be the deciding factor.
(Dont mind my bad english)
What is the power that computers need to start assimilating knowledge like we humans do ? Computers need a more advanced sense recognition system that would store high amounts of complex data containing images, sounds, situations, emotions, time ect.. This data would be separated, labeled and stored as different sets of variables that would interact with other variables throu relationship formulas. The future AI program would have to search a knowledge source with a capacity of recognizing and then labeling different words, frases, ideas, information, and events accordingly. There isnt one place where all this data could be stored. Its to much data. Therefor this data would have to be distruibuited over all home computer and work hard drives. The job of labeling this data would take centries for humans beings to do, for the data is too scattered and its amount is of infinite proportions.
Human beings cant consturct Artificial Intelligence. Intelligence builds patiently by itself. Humans have to construct a tool that builds up knowledge. The problem is that this tool would be very limited . There are only 3 places to search for ti find huge amounts of knowledge sufficient to build an artificial intelligence: in humans, in books, and in the internet. Being that computers cannot yet effectively interact with humans and cannot yet pick up and read books from the basement of a library, the only logical knowledge source is the internet. Unfortunately the internet is to scattered. There isnt a possibility that each website owner (knowledge cell) in the world would individually label there data and properly store it, and relate it in a relationship formula. It would take tremendous group work and world wide cordination for such a work to occur. What is more probable to occur is that knowledge labeling viruses would start working freely in the internet. The virus would invade each website and label the data accordingly. The label´s location would be stored in the location that the virus would be invading, and the cordinates of where to find such label would stored in the virus and also be sent to a virus home. Different viruses would exist to label different types of information. When different viruses meet, they would duplicate and merge. Lets say Virus Banana and Virus Land meet. 2 virus banana would be formed and 2 virus land would be formed. A virus BananaLand would merge from one of each. And the other orginal Banana and Land virus would be free to continue roaming. Lets say if a Banana virus met with a Banana virus, then they would merge together into one banana virus containing all information from both. All virus would have a critical limit size. Once the virus reached its limit size it would stop labeling and merging job (procedure). It would start a new function of mapping the names of other viruses that contained the same labels that it has. There for a grown virus would know who all his virus buddies where. This buddy list would also be sent a virus home. When the critical size of the virus buddy list reached its limit, the virus would stop to work and copy itself in various virus homes (harddrives). The virus would then activate the last procedure of sprouting. It would publicate its location to various search engines. The correct knowledge growth would have to be well calculated not to produce an exponential knowledge growth. The correct mergeing and deleting of data is essencial. Now a days we call them viruses but in the future they could be called Neurons. A knowledge plague will spread across the internet. Let us think if this plague will be introduced by well intentioned thinking individuals or criminal minds.
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