Betting Procedure

The coin of the realm is the Prediction and the Long Bet. A Long Bet is made when a member challenges a predictor to a wager over their Prediction. Members and bettors alike can follow the action from a single page throughout the process. Predictions that stand unchallenged are listed in Predictions On the Record; challenged predictions appear in Bets On the Record. Bets on the Record are set in stone and can never be changed.

Making a Prediction
the predictor

A member who makes a Prediction is called the predictor. To make a Prediction:

Initial Approval
the mediator

A Long Bets mediator will determine if the Proposed Prediction adheres to The Rules of Long Bets, ensuring especially that it is "societally or scientifically important." If approved, the predictor is notified and it becomes a Recorded Prediction, appearing in Predictions On the Record, where it remains until challenged by another Long Bets member. if it doesn't meet the Long Bets criteria, the mediator will contact the predictor with suggestions for improvement.

Betting on a Prediction
the challenger

Predictions can be challenged by any Long Bets member. To challenge a Prediction:

Negotiation
predictor, challenger & mediator

Once the predictor chooses a challenger, the Recorded Prediction becomes a Proposed Bet and negotiation begins:

Final Approval
the mediator

A Long Bets mediator will determine if the Proposed Bet adheres to The Rules of Long Bets. If approved, the bettors are notified and it becomes a Recorded Bet, appearing in Bets On the Record, where it is set in stone forever. if it doesn't meet the Long Bets criteria, the mediator will contact the bettors with suggestions for improvement.

Congratulations! A parchment certificate authenticating your bet will be sent to you, to be viewed with growing pride or dismay.

YEARS GO BY...

Long Bets endeavors to keep in touch with both bettors by email, or whatever replaces email. Discussion traffic on the Long Bet page waxes and wanes, depending on events in the world that make the bet more or less interesting. Discussion may pick up as the end-date of the bet approaches.

The Bet is Resolved
predictor, challenger & Long Bets